Match Analysis: Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-17
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Game Overview
Atlanta United FC, currently 11th in the MLS, hosts the Philadelphia Union, ranked 3rd, in a regular season clash. The Union recently dominated Atlanta 3-0 on April 19, 2025, with standout performances from Sullivan, Jean Jacques, and Baribo. Both teams are motivated: Atlanta seeks redemption at home, while the Union aims to extend their strong form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Philadelphia Union are in excellent form, securing a convincing 3-0 win over Atlanta just weeks ago and ranking among the league's top teams. Atlanta United, by contrast, has struggled for consistency and sits in the lower half of the standings. The Union's defense, led by goalkeeper Andre Blake, has been particularly strong, while Atlanta’s attack has lacked clinical finishing.
- Recent head-to-head results favor the Union, with Philadelphia winning the last encounter 3-0. Historically, Philadelphia has performed well in this fixture, especially under pressure.
- No major injury updates are available from current sources for either side. Both teams are likely to field close to full-strength lineups.
- The match will be played at Atlanta’s home ground, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which traditionally provides a significant home advantage. Weather conditions are expected to be mild, with no extreme factors impacting play.
- Atlanta United is highly motivated to bounce back from a comprehensive defeat and please their home fans. Philadelphia Union, on a strong run and sitting 3rd, will aim to consolidate their position with another victory.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | atlanta_united_fc: 123, philadelphia_union: 197, draw: 265 | Philadelphia Union or Draw | High |
Spread | atlanta_united_fc: -0.5 117, philadelphia_union: 50 -156 | Philadelphia Union +0.5 | High |
Over/under | over: 2.5 -152, under: 2.5 113 | Over 2.5 Goals | Medium |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Union 34% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Philadelphia Union at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite Atlanta's home advantage, Philadelphia Union's superior form and recent dominance over Atlanta make them the favorites. However, Atlanta's motivation and home crowd could make this closer than the previous meeting. The most likely outcome is a Union win or a draw, with a slight edge to Philadelphia.
Predicted Score: Philadelphia Union 2-1 Atlanta United FC