Alexander Poppeck and Pavol Langer are set to face off in a highly anticipated rematch at OKTAGON 71. Poppeck is favored to win, seeking revenge against Langer. The bout is in the light heavyweight division.
Key Factors to Consider
Poppeck, ranked #73 in the LHW division, has been preparing intensely for this rematch. Langer, ranked #96, seeks to upset Poppeck again.
The two fighters have a previous match, with Poppeck looking to avenge his loss.
No reported injuries for either fighter prior to the match.
Home advantage could slightly favor Poppeck, but Langer's experience in past victories could balance this.
Poppeck is highly motivated to win after losing the previous match, while Langer aims to prove his victory was not a fluke.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
-350 for Poppeck, +225 for Langer
Poppeck to win
★★★★☆ 80%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Alexander Poppeck -98%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.
Predicted Outcome
Alexander Poppeck is favored to win due to his strong preparation and motivation for revenge.
Predicted Score: Poppeck win by unanimous decision
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Alexander Poppeck vs. Pavol Langer Prediction
Match Analysis: Alexander Poppeck vs Pavol Langer – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-05-17 Time: 4:00 PM UTC Location: BMW Park, Munich, Germany Game Overview Alexander Poppeck and Pavol Langer are set to face off in a highly anticipated rematch at OKTAGON 71. Poppeck is favored to win, seeking revenge against Langer. The bout is in […]
Gilbert Burns faces off against Michael Morales in a crucial welterweight bout. Burns, a former UFC title challenger, is on a three-fight losing streak and seeks to revive his career. Morales, undefeated in the UFC, looks to extend his winning streak.
Key Factors to Consider
Burns has struggled with recent losses, while Morales has shown impressive performances, including a knockout win over Neil Magny. Burns' grappling skills are a significant advantage, but Morales' reach and recent momentum could be challenging for him.
This is their first meeting, with Burns having more experience but Morales being younger and more aggressive.
No recent injuries reported for either fighter.
The event takes place in a neutral venue, but Burns' experience might give him an edge in handling pressure.
Both fighters are highly motivated, with Burns seeking to break his losing streak and Morales aiming to solidify his position in the division.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Gilbert Burns: 575, Michael Morales: -850
Michael Morales
★★★★☆ 75%
Spread
Gilbert Burns +5.5: 250, Michael Morales -5.5: -370
Michael Morales
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over 3.5: 100, Under 3.5: -130
Under 3.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Michael Morales -11%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 3.5 6%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Michael Morales is favored to win due to his recent performances and youth, but Gilbert Burns' experience could make it a competitive fight.
Rodolfo Bellato is favored to win against Paul Craig in their upcoming light heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night. Bellato is looking to capitalize on Craig's 'big name' to elevate his career. Craig, known for his submissions, will face Bellato, who boasts a strong record.
Key Factors to Consider
Rodolfo Bellato has a strong record of 12-2-0, while Paul Craig stands at 17-9-1. Bellato is likely to use his orthodox stance and significant reach disadvantage to his advantage through strategic fighting.
This is their first matchup, making it difficult to predict based on past performances against each other.
No significant injuries reported for either fighter.
The fight is taking place in Las Vegas, which could affect fighters differently based on their experience in such environments.
Bellato is highly motivated to win and boost his career, using Craig's name to gain more recognition.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
-535 (Bellato), 400 (Craig)
Bellato to win
★★★★☆ 75%
Spread
-3.5 (-370) for Bellato, +3.5 (250) for Craig
Bellato to win by more than 3.5 rounds not likely, as MMA fights are often decided early or go to decision.
★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under
1.5 rounds (Over 100, Under -130)
Under 1.5 rounds, as both fighters are capable of ending the fight early.
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Rodolfo Bellato 275%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 1.5 15%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Rodolfo Bellato at 275% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 68.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rodolfo Bellato is predicted to win this fight based on his strong record and motivation to capitalize on Craig's name.
Predicted Score: Bellato to win by submission or TKO.
Sodiq Yusuff, a featherweight, is moving up to lightweight on short notice to face Mairon Santos at UFC Vegas 106. Yusuff is returning after over a year following consecutive losses, while Santos is coming off a win and is a winner of The Ultimate Fighter 32.
Key Factors to Consider
Sodiq Yusuff has a 13-4 record but has not fought since April 2024, losing his last two fights. Mairon Santos has a 15-1 record and is coming off a win at UFC 313.
This is the first fight between Sodiq Yusuff and Mairon Santos.
No significant injury reports for either fighter.
Yusuff's weight class change might affect his performance. Santos's recent win could boost his confidence.
Both fighters are motivated to win, with Yusuff looking to end his losing streak and Santos seeking to continue his winning form.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Mairon Santos: -135, Sodiq Yusuff: 114
Mairon Santos to win
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Mairon Santos: -3.5 140, Sodiq Yusuff: 3.5 -190
Take Mairon Santos -3.5 for a risky bet
★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under
Over: 2.5 -220, Under: 2.5 170
Under 2.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Mairon Santos -99%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.5 -98%
⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.
Predicted Outcome
Based on recent performances, Mairon Santos is favored to win.
Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursultan Ruziboev are set to face off in a middleweight bout at UFC Vegas 106. Stoltzfus holds a 16-6-0 record, while Ruziboev boasts a 35-9-2 record (2 NC). The odds favor Ruziboev heavily, with a moneyline of -298 compared to Stoltzfus's +240.
Key Factors to Consider
Stoltzfus lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute with a 44% accuracy rate, while Ruziboev lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute with the same accuracy rate. Ruziboev has a slight edge in defense, absorbing 3.78 strikes per minute while defending 50% of shots, compared to Stoltzfus's 3.29 strikes absorbed with a 46% defense rate.
There is no head-to-head data available for this matchup.
No reported injuries for either fighter.
The bout is at neutral ground, UFC Apex, which may not provide a significant advantage to either fighter.
Both fighters are motivated by the prospect of winning, but Ruziboev's recent form and experience may give him an edge in terms of confidence and strategy.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Stoltzfus: +240, Ruziboev: -298
Nursultan Ruziboev
High
Spread
Stoltzfus: 3.5 (+175), Ruziboev: -3.5 (-240)
Take Ruziboev -3.5, but with moderate confidence due to the spread.
Moderate
Over/under
over: 1.5 (-105), under: 1.5 (-125)
Over 1.5 rounds
High
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Nursultan Ruziboev -3%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 1.5 7%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nursultan Ruziboev is favored to win due to his experience and recent form.
Predicted Score: Nursultan Ruziboev win by decision
The upcoming UFC Vegas 106 fight between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa is a featherweight bout featuring two southpaw fighters with contrasting styles. Erosa, a 35-year-old veteran finisher known for his volume striking and aggression, faces the younger and durable Melquizael Costa, who emphasizes defense and counter-striking. Both fighters enter with a motivation for a four-fight win streak, making this contest highly competitive and significant for their career trajectories.
Key Factors to Consider
Julian Erosa brings a record of 31-12-0 with a high volume of significant strikes at 6.40 per minute and a 49% strike accuracy, but he absorbs a high rate at 6.21 strikes per minute. Melquizael Costa holds a 23-7-0 record with lower strike output at 3.86 per minute but better defense, absorbing just 2.72 strikes per minute and defending 52% of strikes. Both fighters have similar striking accuracy around 49%.
There is no recorded previous bout between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa, marking this fight as their first direct encounter.
No reported injuries to either fighter have been indicated close to the fight date, suggesting both are expected to enter at full health.
The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a familiar venue for both fighters, reducing travel and acclimatization concerns. No significant external distractions or controversies have been reported impacting either fighter’s preparedness.
Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a 4-fight win streak, which would boost their UFC rankings and career momentum. Erosa, the veteran, aims to demonstrate his finishing prowess, while Costa looks to leverage his defensive skills and youth to outlast Erosa.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Melquizael Costa -13%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.5 -3%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the defensive durability and lower absorption rate of strikes by Melquizael Costa combined with his ability to defend strikes effectively, Costa has a statistical edge despite Erosa's higher volume and finishing reputation. Costa’s youth and defense likely make him the favorite, but Erosa’s pressure and experience could yield a competitive fight. The prediction favors Melquizael Costa to win by decision or late stoppage.
Predicted Score: Melquizael Costa wins via decision (3-0 rounds)
This upcoming MMA fight features Gabriel Green, a seasoned fighter with a record of 11-5, against Matheus Camilo, a newcomer to the UFC with a 9-2 record. The bout is part of UFC Fight Night 256, taking place in the welterweight division.
Key Factors to Consider
Gabriel Green has more UFC experience, which could be an advantage. However, Matheus Camilo is coming in with momentum from his recent performances.
There is no prior head-to-head matchup between these fighters.
No significant injuries reported for either fighter.
The fight's location and the presence of home fans might not significantly impact the outcome since both fighters are not from the venue's local area.
Both fighters are highly motivated, with Camilo aiming to make a strong UFC debut and Green seeking to improve his UFC record.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Gabriel Green: 190, Matheus Camilo: -230
Matheus Camilo
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Gabriel Green: 3.5 110, Matheus Camilo: -3.5 -150
Matheus Camilo
★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under
Over: 2.5 120, Under: 2.5 -154
Under
★★★☆☆ 62%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Matheus Camilo -11%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.5 -1%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Matheus Camilo is favored to win due to his recent success and Dana White's recognition through his 'Lookin' For a Fight' contract.
Predicted Score: Decision or late-round finish in favor of Matheus Camilo.
This Lightweight division matchup in the UFC features Jared Gordon, known for his aggressive approach, facing Thiago Moises, who excels at neutralizing opponents with his patient and poised fighting style. Moises has a solid wrestling and grappling game, while Gordon is expected to be the more active fighter. The fight is part of the UFC Vegas 106 Prelims.
Key Factors to Consider
Both fighters have similar records, with Gordon holding a slight edge in activity and aggression. Moises, however, has a more effective neutralizing style, which he uses to control opponents.
No prior head-to-head matchups between these fighters are noted.
No recent injuries are reported for either fighter.
The fight environment in the UFC Vegas 106 Prelims could favor Gordon's aggressive style, but Moises's calm approach might counterbalance this.
Both fighters are motivated to secure a win, but Gordon's aggressive style might indicate a higher level of motivation to outperform Moises.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
-122 : 102
Jared Gordon
★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread
-3.5 175 : 3.5 -245
Jared Gordon
★★★☆☆ 50%
Over/under
2.5 -330 : 2.5 240
Under
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Jared Gordon 0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.5 104%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 104% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 43.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jared Gordon is likely to win via decision due to his aggressive strategy and ability to outwork opponents. However, Moises's grappling skills could pose a challenge if he can take Gordon down.
Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Jared Gordon
The upcoming MMA fight between Yadier DelValle and Connor Matthews is set to take place at UFC Vegas 106 in the Featherweight division. Yadier DelValle is undefeated with a record of 8-0-0, while Connor Matthews accepted this fight on short notice.
Key Factors to Consider
Yadier DelValle is undefeated and has a strong background in MMA, while Connor Matthews has had recent losses and is coming into this fight on short notice.
This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
There are no reported injuries for either fighter.
Connor Matthews' short notice and recent performance trends could negatively impact his chances.
Both fighters are highly motivated, but Connor Matthews might be more driven due to overcoming short preparation time.
Luana Santos and Tainara Lisboa are set to face each other in a bantamweight fight at UFC Vegas 106. Luana Santos is favored for her precise striking and grappling skills, while Tainara Lisboa is known for her aggressive fighting style.
Key Factors to Consider
Luana Santos' precise striking and grappling skills give her an edge, while Tainara Lisboa's aggressive approach could lead to early success.
There is no historical head-to-head data available for this matchup.
No reported injuries for either fighter.
Both fighters are from Brazil, which might not significantly impact the fight's dynamics.
Both fighters are motivated to win, with Luana Santos being favored to win.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
-162 vs 136
Luana Santos
★★★★☆ 70%
Spread
-3.5 140 vs 3.5 -190
Luana Santos
★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under
Over 2.5 -270 vs Under 2.5 200
Over
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Luana Santos -99%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2.5 -99%
⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.
Predicted Outcome
Luana Santos is likely to win due to her technical skills and current form.
