Match Analysis: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Missouri Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-20
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Hoover Metropolitan Stadium, Hoover, Ala.
Game Overview
The Alabama Crimson Tide (#9 seed) face the Missouri Tigers (#16 seed) in the 2025 Southeastern Conference Baseball Tournament. Alabama, ranked #9 and playing at a neutral venue in Hoover, Ala., has a home advantage considering proximity and fan support. Missouri enters as the #16 seed. The pitching matchup features Alabama's RHP Tyler Fay against Missouri's RHP Sam Horn. Alabama holds a recent season win over Missouri by a 4-3 margin in SEC tournament history.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alabama has demonstrated strong offensive capabilities throughout the season with significant wins including recent 6-3, 6-4, and 6-2 victories, showing resilience and depth in scoring. Missouri's performance has been more inconsistent with notable losses and a mixed record in recent weeks. Alabama's pitching staff, led by Tyler Fay, appears more stable and effective compared to Missouri's Sam Horn.
- Historically, Alabama won their recent SEC tournament meeting against Missouri 4-3 in a close contest in 2015, indicating competitive matchups. In the current season, Alabama has been winning most recent encounters against Missouri, giving them a psychological edge.
- No official reports of key injuries from either team have surfaced for this specific match, suggesting both teams are near full strength.
- The game is played at Hoover Metropolitan Stadium, a neutral site close to Alabama, which could provide a slight crowd advantage. Weather is stable with no immediate rain forecast impacting the game time or conditions.
- Alabama enters as a higher seed with momentum from a strong season and home-region support, motivated to progress in the SEC Tournament. Missouri seeks an upset and to improve its tournament standing, providing strong underdog motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide: -720, Missouri Tigers: 450 | Alabama Crimson Tide | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide: -4.5 -154, Missouri Tigers: +4.5 120 | Alabama Crimson Tide -4.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 14.5: -120, Under 14.5: -110 | Under 14.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 14.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 14.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to win given their superior season form, pitching advantage, and venue proximity. Expect a moderately close game with Alabama's offense edging Missouri. Final score predicted with Alabama scoring in the mid-to-high single digits and Missouri in the low single digits.
Predicted Score: Alabama Crimson Tide 8 – Missouri Tigers 3