Match Analysis: Rio Ave FC vs Gil Vicente - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-16
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Rio Ave FC Home Stadium
Game Overview
The upcoming Primeira Liga match between Rio Ave FC and Gil Vicente is poised to be a close contest. Historically, Rio Ave leads in wins but matches have often been tightly contested with a moderate average of around 2.08 goals per game in their head-to-head clashes. Both teams have shown tendencies toward scoring over 1.5 goals per match, especially at Rio Ave’s home ground where over 2.5 goals occur frequently. However, recent encounters have seen under 2.5 goals and consecutive draws, indicating cautious gameplay ahead.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rio Ave averages 1.24 goals per game at home this season with 63.64% of their home games going over 2.5 goals. Gil Vicente has a lower scoring average of 1.05 goals per game and a less frequent over 2.5 goals rate of 42.11% in away matches. Rio Ave’s home form and goal production are superior, while Gil Vicente has struggled and won only three away games this season.
- In 36 meetings, Rio Ave won 14 matches, Gil Vicente 11, with 11 draws. Recent direct matches include two consecutive draws with under 2.5 goals scored, suggesting close, low-scoring games. Rio Ave holds a historical edge with 9 home wins in the last 16 meetings at their stadium, compared to 4 by Gil Vicente.
- No specific injury information is available for either team, suggesting both squads could field their strongest lineups.
- No major external factors such as weather or officiating concerns have been reported. Playing at Rio Ave’s stadium offers them typical home advantage.
- As the season nears its end, both teams are motivated to secure points — Rio Ave to leverage home advantage and maintain league position, Gil Vicente to improve away form and climb the table. Previous form suggests Rio Ave has slightly higher motivation and performance levels.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gil Vicente: 1.75, Rio Ave FC: 1.5, Draw: 2.2 | Rio Ave FC to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Gil Vicente: 1, Rio Ave FC: 1.2 | Rio Ave FC on spread 0 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: 1.08, Under 2.5: 1.12 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rio Ave FC 43% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 25% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Rio Ave FC at 43% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rio Ave is favored to win a closely contested match with probable under 2.5 goals scored, reflecting recent low-scoring draws and tight defense from both sides. The match may be decided by narrow margins.
Predicted Score: 1-0
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