Match Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-14
- Time: 5:11 PM UTC
- Location: Progressive Field
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Brewers are visiting the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field in a closely contested MLB matchup. Both teams have shown competitive form, with the Guardians holding a slightly better record (25-17) compared to the Brewers (20-23). The game is set to start at 1:10 PM ET (17:10 UTC), with pitchers Gavin Williams (Guardians) and Louie Henderson (Brewers) expected to start. Pitching performances and recent team form are key elements in this matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cleveland Guardians have a stronger recent record and pitching performance, notably with Gavin Williams posting a 4.38 ERA and good recent outings. The Brewers have struggled somewhat with a 20-23 record but have been competitive in run lines. Guardians have dominated earlier games in the series, winning by multiple runs and keeping Brewers scoreless in those.
- In the current series, the Guardians have won the first two games decisively, including a 5-0 and 2-0 scoreline. This shows a recent upper hand at both pitching and offense for Cleveland against Milwaukee.
- No specific injuries reported that would significantly impact the starting pitchers or key players for either team in this game.
- Weather is favorable with a temperature around 68°F, only 17% chance of rain, and light wind of 6 mph, which should not considerably affect play.
- The Guardians are motivated to extend their winning streak in the series and maintain their strong home form. The Brewers will be seeking to break their losing streak in this series and improve their road record.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians: -146, Milwaukee Brewers: 124 | Cleveland Guardians | ★★★☆☆ 57% |
Spread | Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+140), Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-170) | Cleveland Guardians -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 8.5: 100, Under 8.5: -122 | Under 8.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Based on pitching matchups, recent form, and head-to-head results, the Cleveland Guardians are favored to win this game, likely by a margin of 2 or more runs. The under 8.5 total runs is also a strong possibility given the pitching strength and recent low-scoring games between these teams.
Predicted Score: Cleveland Guardians 4 – 2 Milwaukee Brewers