Match Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-13
- Time: 10:10 PM UTC
- Location: Progressive Field
Game Overview
The Cleveland Guardians face the Milwaukee Brewers in an MLB matchup at Progressive Field. The Guardians hold a better record (24-17) compared to the Brewers (20-22). Cleveland features left-hander Logan Allen (1-2, 4.33 ERA), while Milwaukee's starter is right-hander Quinn Priester (1-1, 5.08 ERA). Both teams have shown moderate offensive and pitching performances, with Cleveland favored marginally by bookmakers.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cleveland Guardians have a stronger overall record and slightly better pitching stats, with an ERA near 4.33 for starter Logan Allen. Milwaukee Brewers have struggled to maintain a winning record, posting a 20-22 record with a 4.17 team ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Offensively, the Brewers bat around .233 with a .311 OBP; key hitters include Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang. Guardians have been more consistent in scoring and preventing runs.
- Recent head-to-head data suggests a closely contested matchup; predicted scores hover around 4.3 runs for Milwaukee and 4.4 for Cleveland, indicating games typically decided by a narrow margin.
- No significant injury updates reported for either side affecting starting lineups or pitching staff for this game.
- Game is played at Progressive Field, giving the Guardians home-field advantage. Weather and other external conditions are typical for this time and venue, not expected to heavily impact gameplay.
- Cleveland Guardians, holding a better season record and playing at home, are likely motivated to maintain their winning momentum. Milwaukee Brewers, under .500 and facing a tough schedule ahead, have strong incentive to upset the Guardians and improve their standing.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians: -123, Milwaukee Brewers: 112 | Cleveland Guardians win | ★★★☆☆ 54% |
Spread | Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 165, Milwaukee Brewers: 1.5 -190 | Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over: 9 -110, Under: 9 -110 | Under 9 runs | ★★★☆☆ 57% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 9 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cleveland Guardians are predicted to win a close game, leveraging home-field advantage and more consistent pitching. Expect a moderately low-scoring contest with both teams scoring around 4 runs each but Cleveland edging out by a slight margin.
Predicted Score: Cleveland Guardians 5, Milwaukee Brewers 4