Match Analysis: NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-14
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen, Netherlands
Game Overview
NEC Nijmegen will host NAC Breda in this crucial Eredivisie fixture. Both teams are near the relegation zone with NEC placed 14th with 33 points and NAC Breda 15th with 32 points, making this encounter vital for their survival hopes. The match could be tight given the close league standings and historical competitive encounters.
Key Factors to Consider
- NEC Nijmegen has a slightly better recent record with 9 wins, 6 draws, and 15 losses, while NAC Breda holds 8 wins, 8 draws, and 14 losses this season. NEC possesses key scorers like V van Crooij with 9 goals, and NAC's offense is led by players like K Ogawa and E Ómarsson each with 7 goals. Both teams show weaknesses defensively but NEC's home advantage may support them.
- This season NEC and NAC Breda have met once before, with their historical matches generally close, reflecting the comparable levels of both sides. NEC narrowly edges NAC in current league placement but with only one match played this season, their head-to-head record indicates a balanced rivalry.
- No specific injury updates were disclosed for either team, indicating potentially full-strength squads available for this matchup.
- The match is played at NEC's home ground, Stadion de Goffert, which may provide a slight advantage. Weather or other external conditions were not reported to impact the game significantly.
- Given both teams' precarious standings near relegation, motivation levels should be high, with NEC motivated to capitalize on home advantage and NAC striving to secure points on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | NEC Nijmegen: -130, NAC Breda: 310, Draw: 280 | NEC Nijmegen Win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | NEC Nijmegen -0.75: -102, NAC Breda +75: -118 | NEC Nijmegen -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.75: -109, Under 2.75: -111 | Under 2.75 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | NEC Nijmegen -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.75 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
NEC Nijmegen is favored to win narrowly due to the home advantage and marginally better league position, but a low-scoring draw is plausible given both teams' defensive weaknesses and similar quality.
Predicted Score: 1-0