Match Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-12
- Time: 10:10 PM UTC
- Location: Cleveland Guardians' Home Stadium
Game Overview
The Cleveland Guardians host the Milwaukee Brewers in an MLB regular season matchup. The Guardians have a slightly positive historical head-to-head edge but are currently on a 4-game losing streak against the Brewers. Recent form favors the Brewers, who have won 3 of their last 5 games compared to the Guardians' single win in their last 5. Both teams have been competitive defensively and offensively, with average runs per game close to 4.7-4.9 in their past matchups. The game is expected to be closely contested, with pitching and run production pivotal to the outcome.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Guardians have scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in their last five matchups but have struggled to convert those into wins, recording only 1 win. The Brewers have more balanced recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 games and a modest 2.8 runs per game, indicating stronger pitching performances. Historical head-to-head stats show a narrow overall advantage for the Brewers (216-210), but recent momentum favors Milwaukee with a 4-game winning streak over Cleveland.
- The two teams have met 426 times historically, with the Brewers holding a slight edge with 216 wins to Cleveland's 210. The Brewers currently have a 4-game winning streak against the Guardians. The longest winning streak for the Brewers over Cleveland is 8 games, while Cleveland's longest streak against Milwaukee was 7. Their last meeting was on August 18, 2024, where Milwaukee won 2-0 at home.
- No specific injury reports were available for either team at the time of the match, suggesting relatively full-strength squads.
- The game is played at Cleveland's home stadium, providing them home-field advantage. Weather and other external conditions are not specified but generally may impact pitching and batting.
- Both teams are motivated to improve their standings and end recent streaks—the Guardians aim to snap their losing streak against the Brewers, while Milwaukee looks to extend it and secure a valuable road win.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians: 110, Milwaukee Brewers: -130 | Milwaukee Brewers to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Cleveland Guardians +1.5: -156, Milwaukee Brewers -1.5: 130 | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 8: -110, Under 8: -110 | Under 8 runs | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the Brewers' recent superior form and momentum against the Guardians, combined with better recent win ratios and pitching effectiveness, the prediction favors the Milwaukee Brewers to win the game but by a close margin.
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4 – 2 Cleveland Guardians