Match Analysis: Sevilla vs Las Palmas – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-13
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Seville, Spain
Game Overview
The La Liga clash between Sevilla and Las Palmas on May 13, 2025, presents a matchup between a mid-table Sevilla side and a struggling Las Palmas team. Sevilla, sitting 16th with 36 points, have shown moderate attacking output and defensive vulnerability, conceding more goals than they have scored. Las Palmas occupy 18th position with 29 points, fighting to avoid relegation with sporadic offensive threats mainly from F. Silva and Lukebakio. The game at Sevilla’s home ground is critical for both teams’ season objectives.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sevilla have a record of 9 wins, 9 draws, and 13 losses, scoring 37 goals and conceding 45, showing defensive weaknesses. Las Palmas have 7 wins, 8 draws, and 16 losses, scoring 29 goals and conceding 53, struggling more in defense. Sevilla's offensive output is moderate, supported by players like Lukebakio with 11 goals, while Las Palmas rely on F. Silva (10 goals) and Sandro (8 goals).
- Historically, Sevilla have been stronger at home against Las Palmas with a better win ratio, but recent matches have been closely contested. Las Palmas have occasionally pulled off surprise results, making the fixture somewhat unpredictable.
- Current data does not specify key injuries for either side, suggesting both teams may field close to full strength.
- The match is played at Sevilla’s home ground, Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, with expected mild weather (around 74-77°F), favoring the home side’s playing style. The timing late in the season adds pressure on both sides, especially Las Palmas fighting relegation.
- Sevilla aims to secure safety and possibly climb the table with a home win, while Las Palmas is highly motivated to escape relegation, making them a dangerous opponent despite their inferior position.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Las Palmas: 295, Sevilla: -105, Draw: 255 | Sevilla win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Las Palmas: 50 -115, Sevilla: -0.5 -105 | Sevilla -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.25 -122, Under: 2.25 102 | Over 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sevilla 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 -2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Sevilla at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sevilla is favored to win due to better form at home and slightly stronger squad performance, but Las Palmas’ desperation to avoid relegation could lead to a tightly contested match likely ending in a narrow victory or a draw.
Predicted Score: 2-1
