Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 5:35 PM UTC
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Game Overview
The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Atlanta Braves in an MLB regular-season matchup at PNC Park. Coming off a close 3-2 Braves win over the Pirates in an 11-inning game on May 10, 2025, both teams look to assert dominance in this second game of the series. The Braves are favorites based on recent form and strong pitching, while the Pirates look to leverage their home advantage and a strong hitting performance from Joey Bart in the previous game.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Atlanta Braves hold an edge with a win in the most recent encounter and have shown consistent offensive and pitching depth. However, the Pirates demonstrated resilience with better hitting numbers (9 hits vs. 5) in the May 10 game, suggesting offensive potential despite being underdogs. Both teams have solid pitching staffs but the Braves' closer management and bullpen depth are slightly superior.
- Recently, the Braves and Pirates met on May 10, 2025, with the Braves narrowly winning 3-2 in 11 innings. Historically, the Braves have had better overall performance against the Pirates, holding a winning record in recent matchups, but the Pirates have shown competitive spirit at home.
- No significant injury updates affecting starting lineups were reported, suggesting both teams are likely near full strength for this game.
- Weather conditions at PNC Park on game day are expected to be clear, providing neutral playing conditions without adverse impacts on pitching or batting. The home crowd support may energize the Pirates.
- The Braves aim to extend their winning streak and uphold their status as favorites, motivated by a recent narrow win. The Pirates are motivated to bounce back on home turf to avoid a series loss, enhancing their drive to perform well.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Atlanta Braves: -212, Pittsburgh Pirates: 190 | Atlanta Braves | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Atlanta Braves: -1.5 -130, Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 110 | Atlanta Braves -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5: 100, Under 8.5: -120 | Under 8.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Atlanta Braves -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atlanta Braves are predicted to win by a narrow margin based on recent form, pitching advantage, and betting odds. The game is expected to be competitive with moderate scoring.
Predicted Score: Atlanta Braves 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates 2