Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 5:35 PM UTC
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Game Overview
This MLB matchup features the Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the Atlanta Braves at PNC Park. The Braves are favorites with a strong recent win over the Pirates in an 11-inning game on May 10, 2025, at the same venue. The Pirates outhit the Braves 9-5 but still lost 3-2, indicating a close and competitive matchup between the two teams.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Atlanta Braves are currently favored and have demonstrated resilience by winning an extra-inning game despite fewer hits. The Pirates have shown strong hitting capability but have struggled to capitalize fully on opportunities. The Braves have power hitters like Matt Olson who recently hit a home run and drove in runs, while the Pirates had excellent performances from Joey Bart going 4-for-4 with an RBI.
- The previous game on May 10 resulted in a narrow 3-2 Braves victory in 11 innings at PNC Park. This closely contested game suggests a balanced rivalry but with a slight edge to the Braves given recent results.
- No major injury information is available for either team at this time, implying both squads will likely be at or near full strength for this game.
- The game is played at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, which might give the Pirates slight home-field advantage. Weather conditions on game day appear favorable with no reported disruptions.
- The Pirates, coming off a tough extra-inning loss, will be motivated to rebound at home. The Braves, looking to continue their winning momentum on the road, will aim to assert dominance early to avoid another close finish.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta Braves: -212, Pittsburgh Pirates: 190 | Atlanta Braves | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Atlanta Braves: -1.5 -130, Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 110 | Atlanta Braves -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5: 100, Under 8.5: -120 | Under 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta Braves -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8.5 1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the Braves' favored status, recent victory, and stronger odds, they are predicted to win again, though the Pirates' strong hitting suggests a competitive game.
Predicted Score: Atlanta Braves 4 – 2 Pittsburgh Pirates