Match Analysis: Atalanta BC vs AS Roma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: May 12, 2025
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Italy
Game Overview
This Serie A match between Atalanta BC and AS Roma is crucial for both teams' top-four finish aspirations. Atalanta, ranking third, faces Roma, who are fifth but have shown impressive form lately. Roma's defensive solidity and Atalanta's recent home struggles set the stage for an intriguing contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atalanta have been inconsistent at home, winning just eight points from nine games in Bergamo, while Roma are unbeaten in 19 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Roma haven't beaten Atalanta in three years, but Roma's current form could change this trend. The 'both teams to score' bet has succeeded in their last six meetings in Bergamo.
- No specific injury updates are highlighted, but both teams are likely at full strength given no major reports.
- Motivation is high for both teams as they chase European spots. Roma's form under Claudio Ranieri has been exceptional.
- Both teams are motivated to secure a top-four finish, but Roma's resurgence adds an extra layer of competitiveness.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atalanta: -105, Roma: 270, Draw: 265 | Atalanta Win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Atalanta: -0.5 100, Roma: 50 -120 | Atalanta Cover | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -122, Under 2.5: 102 | Over 2.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atalanta BC 104% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Atalanta BC at 104% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Atalanta's home inconsistency and Roma's unbeaten streak, it will be a tight match. However, Atalanta are still favorites due to their historical edge over Roma.
Predicted Score: Atalanta 2, Roma 1