Match Analysis: Boavista Porto vs FC Porto – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Boavista Porto Home Stadium
Game Overview
The upcoming Portugal Primeira Liga match features Boavista Porto hosting FC Porto. FC Porto has been historically dominant in this fixture, having won the majority of their past encounters decisively. Boavista has struggled in recent games, losing their last 5 matches, while FC Porto has had mixed recent results with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5. The match is expected to be competitive but with FC Porto as clear favorites.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boavista Porto has lost their last 5 matches, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded per match, showing vulnerability in defense and inconsistency in attack. FC Porto has won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 1.6, indicating a strong but not impervious side. FC Porto also shows a better away record in the league with a decent goal-scoring rate.
- Historically, FC Porto dominates the head-to-head with 25 wins from 33 matches since 2003, while Boavista has only 3 wins and 5 draws. The teams average around 2.7 goals per game when meeting, with FC Porto scoring heavily. Boavista has not beaten FC Porto in the past 28 meetings, underscoring a strong historical advantage for FC Porto.
- No specific injury information is available in the data provided, suggesting no major absences reported close to the match date.
- The match is played at Boavista's home venue, which can provide some advantage, but FC Porto’s historic dominance and form mitigate this. No other external factors like weather or travel fatigue are noted.
- FC Porto, likely aiming for position consolidation or championship points, has high motivation given their historically superior record and competitive form. Boavista, struggling with a losing streak, are motivated to improve their standings and break their poor run but face a tough task.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Boavista Porto: 625, FC Porto: -250, Draw: 360 | FC Porto | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Boavista Porto: 1.25 -110, FC Porto: -1.25 -110 | FC Porto -1.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over: 2.75 -105, Under: 2.75 -115 | Over 2.75 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | FC Porto -9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.75 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
FC Porto wins with a moderate margin, considering their dominant head-to-head record and better recent form despite Boavista’s home advantage.
Predicted Score: Boavista Porto 1 – 3 FC Porto