Match Analysis: VfB Stuttgart vs Augsburg – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: MHP Arena, Stuttgart, Germany
Game Overview
The Bundesliga match between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg will be a tightly contested fixture with both teams placed mid-table and close in points. Stuttgart currently sit 10th with 44 points, while Augsburg is just behind in 11th with 43 points. Stuttgart has historically dominated Augsburg, especially at home, but both sides come into this game with mixed recent form and some key injury concerns, especially for Augsburg.
Key Factors to Consider
- Stuttgart have struggled recently at home, losing 5 of their last 6 home matches, while Augsburg has a decent away record with a 50% win rate in their last 6 Bundesliga away games. Stuttgart have managed to remain unbeaten in the last 7 clashes against Augsburg and have kept clean sheets in their last 4 matches against them. Stuttgart have only 2 wins in their last 11 Bundesliga matches overall.
- Historically, Stuttgart have dominated this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 league matches against Augsburg. They have also won their last 6 home matches against Augsburg in all competitions, and kept clean sheets in their last 4 encounters. The matches between them have tended to feature under 2.5 goals recently.
- Augsburg face significant injury issues with key players like Anrie Chase (muscle injury), Dan-Axel Zagadou (knee), and Leonidas Stergiou (surgery) out or doubtful. Enzo Millot and Justin Diehl are battling muscle injuries, with others also affected. Stuttgart have fewer reported injury issues and appear more stable in squad availability.
- The upcoming DFB Pokal Final may affect Augsburg's focus and squad rotation as some players are also dealing with fitness issues. Stuttgart have home advantage at the MHP Arena, which could positively influence their performance given their strong historical home record against Augsburg.
- Both teams are closely matched in the league table, separated by just one point, which adds to the game’s importance for securing a higher mid-table finish. Stuttgart, with their better head-to-head and home record, may be more motivated to assert dominance, but Augsburg’s recent away resilience could prompt a cautious but competitive approach.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | VfB Stuttgart: -180, Augsburg: 440, Draw: 360 | VfB Stuttgart win | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Spread | VfB Stuttgart: -1 at -112, Augsburg: +1 at -108 | VfB Stuttgart -1 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 3: -115, Under 3: -105 | Under 3 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | VfB Stuttgart -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3 37% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
VfB Stuttgart is predicted to edge out a narrow victory over FC Augsburg, leveraging home advantage and historical dominance despite recent form challenges. Expect a closely fought match with limited scoring.
Predicted Score: 2-1