Match Analysis: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC St. Pauli – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 3:30 PM UTC
- Location: Deutsche Bank Park
Game Overview
The Bundesliga match between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC St. Pauli at Deutsche Bank Park features a home side with stronger recent form and historical dominance. Eintracht Frankfurt has won the majority of their past meetings against St. Pauli, particularly at home, and they are generally more consistent in the Bundesliga. Both teams have shown mixed form recently, but Frankfurt's home advantage and superior head-to-head record position them as favorites.
Key Factors to Consider
- Eintracht Frankfurt's home form is strong with 10 wins in 16 home Bundesliga games and only 3 losses, while FC St. Pauli has struggled away with just 5 wins in 16 matches and 9 losses. Frankfurt has been relatively stable, with multiple draws in recent matches but still maintaining a solid record at home. St. Pauli has a mixed record with fewer wins and a challenging away form.
- In the last 6 meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt has won 4 and St. Pauli only 1, with 1 draw. Overall, Frankfurt has won 5 out of 8 direct matches historically, showing a strong dominance over St. Pauli, especially in Bundesliga fixtures. The average goals per match in these encounters is around 2.6, indicating a moderately scoring game.
- No specific injury information is currently available for either team, suggesting both squads may be near full strength for this fixture.
- The match is played at Deutsche Bank Park, giving Frankfurt home advantage. There are no apparent disruptive external factors such as weather or travel concerns reported.
- Eintracht Frankfurt is motivated to maintain their unbeaten home streak in recent Bundesliga matches and continue their dominance over St. Pauli. St. Pauli will be eager to upset the form book and improve their poor away record but face a tough challenge.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -195, away: 475, draw: 350 | Eintracht Frankfurt to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | home: -1 -118, away: 1 -102 | Eintracht Frankfurt -1 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | over: 2.75 -112, under: 2.75 -108 | Over 2.75 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Eintracht Frankfurt 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.75 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt is predicted to win narrowly with a final score of 2-1, leveraging their home form and historical dominance while St. Pauli is expected to provide resistance and score at least once.
Predicted Score: 2-1