Match Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-09
- Time: 11:10 PM UTC
- Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Game Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies, currently 2nd in NL East, visit the Cleveland Guardians, 2nd in AL Central, for the opening game of a series. Both teams are evenly matched, with slight edges to Philadelphia in team ERA and bullpen, while Cleveland is slightly ahead in slugging and home runs. Philadelphia's Aaron Nola (1-5, 4.61 ERA) faces Cleveland's Gavin Williams (2-2, 5.06 ERA). Weather at game time is around 48°F, with moderate wind, which could favor pitchers and suppress scoring.
Key Factors to Consider
- Phillies: 4.9 R, 3.87 ERA, .258 AVG, 39 HR, 35 SB. Guardians: 4.2 R, 4.31 ERA, .238 AVG, 42 HR, 29 SB. Both teams hovering around similar scoring and pitching, but Phillies have the edge in run prevention and batting average. Guardians hit for more power.
- Recent head-to-head data not publicly available in search results, but both teams are strong in their respective divisions.
- No major injuries reported in available search results. Monitor team injury reports for last-minute changes.
- Weather: 48°F, 15 mph N wind. Cold temperatures and wind likely to suppress offensive output and advantage pitchers. Event: City Connect Wear Night at Progressive Field, could boost home crowd energy.
- Both teams are in playoff contention in competitive divisions, aiming to gain an early series edge. Guardians slightly more motivated at home, but both teams will compete hard.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians: 108, Philadelphia Phillies: -126 | Philadelphia Phillies (close win) | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Spread | Cleveland Guardians: 1.5 -152, Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 126 | Cleveland Guardians +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 67% |
Over/under | Over: 7.5 -115, Under: 7.5 -105 | Under 7.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the slight pitching advantage for the Phillies, the colder weather favoring pitchers, and the Guardians' home field energy, this should be a close game. The moneyline odds favor the Phillies, but the conditions and Guardians' power provide value on the underdog. Expect a low-scoring, pitcher-friendly affair.
Predicted Score: Philadelphia Phillies 3 – Cleveland Guardians 2