Match Analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 2:45 PM UTC
- Location: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar, Netherlands
Game Overview
AZ Alkmaar will host FC Groningen in an Eredivisie match where AZ currently ranks 6th and Groningen 9th. AZ has a stronger season performance with 47-50 points compared to Groningen's 38, showing a solid home form with several draws recently, while Groningen has been struggling away, losing half of their last six road games. Key players for AZ include top scorer T. Parrott with 14 goals and creative midfielder P. Koopmeiners with 5 assists, while Groningen relies on M. Meerdink and I. Sadiq for goals and assists. AZ Alkmaar shows better consistency and squad depth overall, which should impact the match outcome.
Key Factors to Consider
- AZ Alkmaar has a better record this season with 13 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, accumulating around 47-50 points, while Groningen is mid-table with approximately 10 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses with 38 points. AZ performs well at home, with recent matches showing a high number of draws but firm defensive organization. Groningen struggles away with 50% losses in last six away games, indicating vulnerability on the road.
- This season, AZ Alkmaar and Groningen have met once, with AZ Alkmaar currently holding the advantage in league position and form. Historically, AZ tends to outperform Groningen at home. Previous direct encounters indicate AZ’s dominance or at least control over the game.
- No major injury updates from the available data show significant absences for either team, suggesting both squads should be near full strength for this fixture.
- The match takes place at AZ’s home stadium, AFAS Stadion, which favors AZ due to familiar playing conditions and fan support. Weather or other external conditions have not been noted as impacting this game.
- AZ Alkmaar aims to consolidate their position in the top half of the Eredivisie and possibly secure European competition qualification, while Groningen looks for points to climb higher in the table and avoid slipping further down, indicating moderate motivation levels for both sides.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AZ_Alkmaar: -165, Groningen: 420, Draw: 285 | AZ Alkmaar win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | AZ_Alkmaar_-0.75: -125, Groningen_+75: 105 | AZ Alkmaar -0.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over_2.5: -118, Under_2.5: -102 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AZ Alkmaar is favored to win given their superior home form, league position, and squad strength. The probability for AZ to win is highest with a moderate chance of a draw and a low chance of Groningen winning.
Predicted Score: 2-0
