Match Analysis: CF Estrela vs AVS Futebol SAD – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Jose Gomes, Amadora, Portugal
Game Overview
The upcoming Primeira Liga match between CF Estrela Amadora and AVS Futebol SAD is a critical fixture near the season's end, with both teams fighting to improve their league standings. CF Estrela Amadora, currently 15th, has a slightly better recent form compared to 17th placed AVS Futebol SAD, who have struggled defensively. The match is expected to be tightly contested given both sides' moderate goal-scoring records and defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- CF Estrela Amadora has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 goals scored and conceding 1.4 goals per match. AVS Futebol SAD has 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5, scoring 0.4 goals per match but conceding a higher 2.8 goals per match, indicating defensive fragility. Both teams have low scoring rates, with AVS conceding more goals on average than Estrela.
- The recent direct encounters show a balanced record with one match in 2024 ending in a draw. The last 5 meetings show AVS leading slightly with 3 wins to Estrela's 2, but total goals and Asian handicap statistics indicate low-scoring and competitive matches with limited goal margins.
- No specific injury data is available at the moment; however, typical late-season fatigue and minor injuries could impact squad selections.
- Playing at Estadio Jose Gomes gives CF Estrela Amadora home advantage. Weather and pitch conditions are assumed normal without reported adverse factors. Both teams face pressure to secure points to avoid relegation battles, motivating intense play.
- Both teams are near the bottom of the table and motivated to secure points to improve their standing and avoid relegation threats. This motivation likely leads to a cautious match with focus on defensive solidity.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AVS Futebol SAD: 2.9, CF Estrela: 1.95, Draw: 2.3 | CF Estrela win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | AVS Futebol SAD +50: -120, CF Estrela -0.5: 100 | CF Estrela -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -108, Under 2.25: -112 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | CF Estrela -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Estrela Amadora's slight home advantage, better defensive record, and motivated stance, the prediction is a narrow home win with low-scoring gameplay expected.
Predicted Score: 1-0
