Match Analysis: Mississippi St Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-09
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Dudy Noble Field, Starkville, MS
Game Overview
The 2025 NCAA baseball matchup between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Ole Miss Rebels is a high-stakes SEC rivalry game held at Starkville. Mississippi State enters the game on a 4-game winning streak with a strong home record of 20-7, while Ole Miss is ranked #24 and has shown mixed results throughout the season. Both teams have displayed offensive capability but have also had defensive lapses during the season, setting the stage for a competitive and closely contested game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mississippi State has a 29-19 overall record (.604) and a 10-14 conference record (.417), performing much better at home (20-7). Ole Miss, ranked #24, has notable wins but also some heavy losses, indicating inconsistency. Mississippi Stateβs recent 4-game winning streak at home suggests strong momentum.
- This SEC rivalry has historically been competitive. Both teams have had wins over ranked opponents this season. Ole Miss won some recent matchups, but Mississippi Stateβs home advantage and current streak provide them a slight edge this time.
- No specific injuries reported for either team ahead of this match, suggesting both squads will likely field their best lineups.
- The game is played at Starkville which favors Mississippi State. Weather and other external conditions are typical for May in Mississippi, unlikely to heavily impact play. The match will be broadcast on SECN+, reflecting its high profile.
- Both teams are motivated to improve their SEC standings. Mississippi State aims to capitalize on home advantage and current momentum, while Ole Miss seeks to assert their ranked status and enhance postseason prospects.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mississippi St Bulldogs: -135, Ole Miss Rebels: 105 | Mississippi St Bulldogs | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | Mississippi St Bulldogs: -1.5, Ole Miss Rebels: +1.5 | Mississippi St Bulldogs -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | over: o8.5, under: u8.5 | Over 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mississippi St Bulldogs -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Mississippi St Bulldogs at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mississippi State Bulldogs are favored to win due to strong home performance and current winning streak, but Ole Missβs ranking and previous successes indicate a tight game likely decided by pitching and critical plays late.
Predicted Score: Mississippi State Bulldogs 5 – Ole Miss Rebels 3