Match Analysis: AS Monaco vs Lyon – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stade Louis II
Game Overview
AS Monaco, currently sitting 3rd in Ligue 1 and in contention for a UEFA Champions League spot, host Lyon, who are 7th and eyeing a Europa League spot. Both teams are in solid form, with high scoring averages in their meetings. This match is crucial for European qualification and expected to be highly competitive.
Key Factors to Consider
- Monaco averages 1.91 goals scored and 1.16 goals allowed per match at home; Lyon averages 1.97 goals scored and 1.38 allowed away. Both teams have strong attacking records and a tendency for matches with over 2.25 goals (Monaco 21, Lyon 22 in recent statistics). Monaco's defense performs slightly better, conceding fewer goals than Lyon.
- In 52 direct Ligue 1 meetings, Monaco has 19 wins, Lyon 24, with 9 draws. Lyon historically has a slight edge. The average goals per match is high at 2.87, indicating a likelihood of multiple goals. Recent clashes have featured high-scoring outcomes.
- No major injury updates provided in the latest data. Both teams appear to have full squads available.
- No significant external factors (weather, travel issues, etc.) reported. The match is at Monaco's home ground, giving them a slight advantage.
- High motivation for both sides—Monaco to secure a Champions League spot, Lyon to push for Europa League qualification.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Monaco: -120 | Lyon: 265 | Draw: 330 | Monaco win, slight edge | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Spread | Monaco -0.5: -118 | Lyon +50: -102 | Monaco to cover -0.5 (Monaco or draw) | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Over/under | Over 3.25: -120 | Under 3.25: 100 | Over 3.25 (expect 3 or more goals) | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | AS Monaco 141% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.25 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: AS Monaco at 141% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A closely contested, high-scoring match is expected, with Monaco having a slight edge due to home advantage and superior defensive record. Lyon remains dangerous, especially in attack, and could spring an upset or force a draw.
Predicted Score: AS Monaco 2-1 Lyon