Match Analysis: Holstein Kiel vs SC Freiburg – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: Holstein-Stadion, Kiel, Germany
Game Overview
This match between Holstein Kiel and SC Freiburg is crucial for both teams, with Freiburg seeking to maintain their fourth-place position in the Bundesliga. Holstein Kiel, currently ranked 17th, face a tough challenge against a stronger opponent.
Key Factors to Consider
- Holstein Kiel have struggled this season with a record of 4-7-19, while SC Freiburg have a more impressive 14-6-10. Freiburg's performance is bolstered by players like Ryo Doan, who has scored 9 goals, and Vincenzo Grifo, with 8 goals and 11 assists.
- Historically, head-to-head matches favor SC Freiburg due to their generally stronger performance in the Bundesliga.
- Holstein Kiel have several injuries, including Ivan Nekic and Marco Komenda, while SC Freiburg have fewer reported injuries but still face some challenges with Lucas HΓΆler's recent recovery from a muscle problem.
- Home advantage might slightly favor Holstein Kiel, but Freiburg's form and recent performances make them more likely to secure a win.
- Both teams have strong motivations, with Freiburg aiming to solidify their position in the top four and Holstein Kiel seeking to improve their standings and avoid relegation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Holstein Kiel: 215, SC Freiburg: 110, Draw: 285 | SC Freiburg win | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | Holstein Kiel: 25 -105, SC Freiburg: -0.25 -115 | SC Freiburg cover | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 3 -115, Under: 3 -105 | Over 3 goals | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | SC Freiburg 37% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 -3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: SC Freiburg at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the current form and strength of both teams, SC Freiburg are likely to win this match.
Predicted Score: Holstein Kiel 1, SC Freiburg 2