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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. New Zealand Warriors Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-10
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium / WIN Stadium (Note: Some sources report venue as WIN Stadium, Wollongong. Please verify closer to matchday as venue may be subject to change or discrepancy in reporting.)

Game Overview

The St George Illawarra Dragons host the New Zealand Warriors in Round 10 of the 2025 NRL season. The Warriors are favored in both statistical models and bookmaker odds, but the Dragons remain competitive with recent form and home advantage potentially playing a role. The clash is projected as a tight contest, with bookmakers and predictive models split on the margin and likelihood of an upset.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Warriors have shown superior recent form, with predictive models giving them a clear edge. The Dragons, while underdogs, are performing closely and could benefit from playing at home.
  • Historical matchups between these teams have varied, but recent trends slightly favor the Warriors.
  • No specific injury updates provided in available data. Recommend checking NRL official injury list closer to matchday for updates as this is a key factor.
  • Potential venue discrepancy exists; some sources list Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, others WIN Stadium. Weather and crowd support may also impact.
  • Both teams are motivated for a crucial mid-season win. The Warriors are pushing for a top-four spot, while the Dragons are aiming to build momentum and climb the ladder.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: 113, away: -130, draw: 2000 New Zealand Warriors High (61% predictive model; 51-56% other models)
Spread home: 1.5 -115, away: -1.5 -115 New Zealand Warriors -1.5 Moderate (slight favorite, line close to pick'em; Warriors favored to cover by 1-3 points)
Over/under over: 47.5 -115, under: 47.5 -115 Under 47.5 Moderate (total line is above average, but game expected to be tight and potentially defensive)

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline New Zealand Warriors -99%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 47.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

The New Zealand Warriors are slight to moderate favorites. Predictive models assign a 61% chance of a Warriors win (per Stats Insider), while other sources have the margin much tighter, with the Warriors at 51-56% likelihood. The Dragons offer value at their current odds, but the Warriors are the safer pick for victory, with a predicted winning margin of 2-4 points. The total points market suggests a moderate-scoring game, possibly just under the line given the defensive tendencies and stakes involved.

Predicted Score: New Zealand Warriors 22-18 St George Illawarra Dragons


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. New Zealand Warriors Prediction

Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-05-10 Time: 7:30 AM UTC Location: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium / WIN Stadium (Note: Some sources report venue as WIN Stadium, Wollongong. Please verify closer to matchday as venue may be subject to change or discrepancy in reporting.) Game Overview The […]

May 10, 2025 New Zealand Warriors Rugbyleague St George Illawarra Dragons

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Canberra Raiders vs. Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Canberra Raiders vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-10
  • Time: 5:00 AM UTC
  • Location: GIO Stadium Canberra

Game Overview

This is a top-of-the-table clash in NRL Round 10, featuring the Canberra Raiders (2nd) hosting the Canterbury Bulldogs (1st) during Women in League Round. Both teams are in strong form, with significant motivation as the Bulldogs aim to maintain their lead and the Raiders look to overtake them at home. The game is expected to be closely contested, with advanced analytics giving the Raiders a slight edge.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both teams are performing at elite levels, with the Bulldogs leading the table and the Raiders in second. Recent form and predictive models suggest both are highly competitive, but the Raiders are considered slightly stronger on their home ground.
  • Head-to-head matchups have historically been tight, with Canberra enjoying a home advantage. Data from Stats Insider gives the Raiders a 59% chance of victory in simulations.
  • Canberra: Corey Horsburgh (head, TBA), Jordan Martin (broken hand, Round 10-11), Ethan Sanders (eye socket, Round 11-12), Albert Hopoate (ACL, 2026), Corey Harawira-Naera (seizure, indefinite). Canterbury: Matt Burton (suspension, Round 10), Josh Curran (suspension, Round 12), Enari Tuala (foot, Round 12), Sam Hughes (ankle, Round 12), Jacob Preston (possible suspension, Round 14), Sitili Tupouniua (suspension, Round 15), Jack Todd (arm, Round 16-17).
  • Women in League Round brings extra motivation and support for both teams. The game is part of a broader campaign for ovarian cancer awareness. No notable weather disruptions expected for GIO Stadium.
  • High stakes with both teams aiming to solidify their positions at the top of the ladder. The Raiders are playing at home, which adds extra motivation. Both sides are expected to field near full-strength teams.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Raiders -132, Bulldogs 114, Draw 2000 Canberra Raiders High
Spread Raiders -2.5 (-105), Bulldogs +2.5 (-125) Raiders -2.5 Medium
Over/under Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-115) Over 44.5 Medium

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canberra Raiders 4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 -5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Canberra Raiders at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Canberra Raiders are slight favorites at home with a 59% win probability in predictive models. The Bulldogs' absences, including key players through suspension, slightly tip the balance towards the Raiders. Expect a closely fought contest with the Raiders likely to edge it by a narrow margin.

Predicted Score: Canberra Raiders 24 – Canterbury Bulldogs 20


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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs. Brisbane Broncos Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Brisbane Broncos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-09
  • Time: 10:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Accor Stadium

Game Overview

The South Sydney Rabbitohs face off against the Brisbane Broncos in an anticipated NRL match. Despite their home advantage, the Rabbitohs are considered underdogs, reflecting recent performances and injuries.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Brisbane Broncos have shown stronger recent form compared to the Rabbitohs, who are dealing with significant injury issues.
  • Historically, both teams have had competitive matches, but the Broncos often hold the edge.
  • The Rabbitohs' ongoing injury crisis could severely impact their ability to compete effectively.
  • Home advantage might not significantly benefit the Rabbitohs due to their current team dynamics.
  • Both teams are highly motivated, but the Broncos may have more confidence given their recent success.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Brisbane Broncos: -325, South Sydney Rabbitohs: 260, Draw: 2300 Brisbane Broncos ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Brisbane Broncos: -10.5 -115, South Sydney Rabbitohs: 10.5 -115 Brisbane Broncos to cover the spread ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 48.5 -130, Under: 48.5 100 Over ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Brisbane Broncos 5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 48.5 -8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Brisbane Broncos at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Brisbane Broncos are likely to win due to their stronger recent performance and the Rabbitohs' injury issues.

Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 30, South Sydney Rabbitohs 20


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Newcastle Knights vs. Gold Coast Titans Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-09
  • Time: 8:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Venue unspecified (check updated sources)

Game Overview

Round analysis unavailable for May 9 fixture. Previous 2025 meeting occurred March 22 (Round 3), but no result details available from provided data.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Insufficient recent performance metrics available for analysis
  • Historical H2H data not provided in search results
  • No injury reports accessible from given sources
  • No weather/travel data available for match date
  • Mid-season positioning likely increases stakes for both sides

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Knights -213 / Titans +176 / Draw +2200 Newcastle Knights ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Knights -6.5 (-115) / Titans +6.5 (-115) Knights cover -6.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over 46.5 (-115) / Under 46.5 (-115) Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Newcastle Knights -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Knights favored given shorter moneyline odds (-213), but insufficient tactical data limits confidence

Predicted Score: Newcastle Knights 24-18 Gold Coast Titans


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Parramatta Eels vs. Dolphins Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Parramatta Eels vs Dolphins – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 08/05/2025
  • Time: 9:50 AM UTC
  • Location: CommBank Stadium

Game Overview

Round 10 NRL clash between Parramatta Eels and Dolphins, with recent form showing competitive performances from both teams. Parramatta previously secured a 38-22 victory over an unspecified opponent (likely Wests Tigers) in late April[2], indicating offensive capability but limited historical data on direct H2H matchups.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Parramatta demonstrated strong attacking form in recent weeks, though Dolphins' specific performance metrics are unavailable in the provided data. Venue advantage may favor Parramatta as the home team.
  • Insufficient historical H2H data available from the provided sources for detailed analysis.
  • No injury reports available in the provided data.
  • Standard playing conditions expected with no weather disruptions mentioned. Travel demands for Dolphins could factor into fatigue management.
  • Mid-season positioning makes this crucial for both teams' ladder aspirations.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Dolphins: 109 | Eels: -125 | Draw: 1900 Parramatta Eels (moneyline) ★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread Dolphins: 1.5 (-125) | Eels: -1.5 (-105) Parramatta Eels -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 52%
Over/under Over 46.5 (-145) | Under 46.5 (110) Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 54%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Parramatta Eels 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Parramatta's home advantage and recent scoring form suggest narrow victory potential, though Dolphins' spread odds indicate bookmaker expectations of a tight contest.

Predicted Score: Parramatta Eels 24-20 Dolphins


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Melbourne Storm vs. Canberra Raiders Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-04
  • Time: 8:25 AM UTC
  • Location: Suncorp Stadium

Game Overview

The Melbourne Storm and Canberra Raiders face off in a critical NRL match as Magic Round concludes. Both teams have been impressive, with the Storm sitting second and the Raiders third in the league standings. The Storm have a strong historical performance at Suncorp Stadium, while the Raiders have defied expectations with their attacking prowess.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both teams boast strong forward packs and skilled backs. The Storm's halves, led by Jahrome Hughes, and the Raiders', led by Jamal Fogarty, are crucial. The Storm won their last game against the Rabbitohs 24-16, while the Raiders staged a significant comeback to beat the Dolphins.
  • The Storm have a historical upper hand, including a previous 30-10 win against the Raiders at Suncorp Stadium in the 2020 season's preliminary final.
  • The Storm's Tui Kamikamica is set to return, and Nelson Asofa-Solomona is in the extended squad. The Raiders have no changes to their lineup.
  • The neutral venue might reduce home-field advantages, but the Storm's past success at Suncorp Stadium could be a factor.
  • Both teams are highly motivated as they are closely matched in the standings.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Melbourne Storm -197, Canberra Raiders 171 Melbourne Storm ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Melbourne Storm -5.5 (-125), Canberra Raiders +5.5 (-105) Melbourne Storm ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 47.5 (-115), Under 47.5 (-115) Over 47.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Melbourne Storm -99%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 47.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Given the Storm's historical success and current form, they are favored to win, though the Raiders' recent performance suggests a close match.

Predicted Score: Melbourne Storm 25, Canberra Raiders 20


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Penrith Panthers vs. Brisbane Broncos Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Penrith Panthers vs Brisbane Broncos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-04
  • Time: 6:05 AM UTC
  • Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Game Overview

Penrith Panthers (17th) face Brisbane Broncos (5th) in Round 9 NRL, with Broncos favored due to superior form, home-state advantage (Magic Round at Suncorp), and a stronger forward pack featuring Haas/Carrigan. Panthers lack attacking cohesion but retain key playmaker Nathan Cleary[3][5].

Key Factors to Consider

  • Broncos rank 5th with recent dominant wins; Panthers struggle at 17th with inconsistent performances despite Cleary's return[3][5].
  • Recent historical data unavailable, but Broncos hold significant form advantage[2][4].
  • Panthers: Brad Schneider out. Broncos: Minimal changes to winning squad[3].
  • Magic Round crowd at Suncorp likely to favor Broncos; refereeing team led by Ashley Klein[3].
  • Broncos pushing for top-4 position; Panthers desperate to avoid bottom-four status[5].

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Broncos -179 / Panthers +154 / Draw +2100 Brisbane Broncos ML ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Broncos -4.5 (-110) / Panthers +4.5 (-120) Broncos -4.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 44.5 (-145) / Under 44.5 (+110) Over 44.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Brisbane Broncos -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 44.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Brisbane Broncos (-4.5) to cover spread in high-scoring contest (Over 44.5), leveraging home advantage and superior forward momentum[2][5].

Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 28-20 Penrith Panthers


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Gold Coast Titans vs. Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Gold Coast Titans vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-04
  • Time: 3:50 AM UTC
  • Location: Not specified

Game Overview

The Gold Coast Titans host the Canterbury Bulldogs in what promises to be an exciting NRL match. Both teams will aim to win, given the competitive nature of the league.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Canterbury Bulldogs have generally shown strong form against the Titans in recent years, while the Gold Coast team seeks to improve its home performance.
  • Historically, the Bulldogs have an edge over the Titans. However, recent matches have been competitive, suggesting an improving trend for the Titans.
  • No critical injury updates were found that would significantly impact the team's performance.
  • Weather conditions and crowd support could influence team morale and performance.
  • Both teams are motivated, but the Bulldogs may have an edge based on past head-to-head results.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs: -385, Gold Coast Titans: 290, Draw: 2300 Canterbury Bulldogs ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Canterbury Bulldogs: -10.5 -120, Gold Coast Titans: 10.5 -110 Canterbury Bulldogs ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over: 47.5 -115, Under: 47.5 -115 Under ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 47.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 47.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given historical data and current odds, the Canterbury Bulldogs are favored to win, though the Titans might put up a strong fight.

Predicted Score: Canterbury Bulldogs: 28 – 18 Gold Coast Titans


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Wests Tigers vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Wests Tigers vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-03
  • Time: 9:45 AM UTC
  • Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Game Overview

The Wests Tigers (9th) face the St George Illawarra Dragons (10th) in a tightly contested Round 9 NRL clash at Magic Round, with both teams fielding lineup changes. The Dragons debut Corey Allan and promote Lyhkan King-Togia to halfback, while the Tigers deal with off-field distractions surrounding Lachlan Galvin.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Tigers are marginally favored (60% win probability per Stats Insider's model[5]), but face instability due to Galvin's contract dispute[3]. The Dragons' reshaped halves pairing (King-Togia/Ilias) introduces unpredictability[2][4].
  • Recent historical data unavailable in sources, but current rankings (9th vs 10th) suggest parity.
  • Dragons: Hamish Stewart returns from concussion[4]. Corey Allan debuts after 2024 ACL recovery[4]. Tigers: No explicit injury reports, but Galvin's legal issues may affect focus[3].
  • Magic Round atmosphere at Suncorp Stadium could intensify pressure on inexperienced players like King-Togia[4][5].
  • Dragons seek to capitalize on Tigers' off-field turmoil[3], while Wests aim to leverage home crowd momentum (designated home team per NRL draw[1][5]).

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Tigers -121 / Dragons +102 / Draw +1900 Wests Tigers ML (-121) ★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread Tigers -1.5 (-115) / Dragons +1.5 (-115) Tigers -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 52%
Over/under Over 46.5 (-115) / Under 46.5 (-115) Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 54%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Wests Tigers 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Wests Tigers at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Wests Tigers by ≤4 points in high-variance contest. Stats Insider's 60% probability aligns with slight edge, but Dragons' revamped lineup introduces hedging risk[5].

Predicted Score: Wests Tigers 24-20 Dragons


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New Zealand Warriors vs. North Queensland Cowboys Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: New Zealand Warriors vs North Queensland Cowboys – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-03
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Game Overview

The New Zealand Warriors face the North Queensland Cowboys in Round 9 of the NRL season. The Warriors have been performing well, with halves Luke Metcalf and Chanel Harris-Tavita leading the team to recent victories. The Cowboys, however, are on a strong run, having impressed with their scoring ability.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Warriors have won four of their last five encounters against the Cowboys. The Cowboys have had a strong recent run, scoring seven tries in 33 minutes against the Titans.
  • Recent head-to-head data favors the Warriors, but the Cowboys have momentum coming into this game.
  • Jacob Laban from the Warriors is subject to concussion protocols and is replaced by Te Maire Martin on the bench.
  • The game is part of Magic Round, which can sometimes impact team dynamics.
  • Both teams have been motivated by recent performances, but the Cowboys' current form might give them an edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Warriors: 108, Cowboys: -130, Draw: 1900 Cowboys ★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread Warriors: +1.5 -115, Cowboys: -1.5 -115 Cowboys to cover -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over 44.5: -150, Under 44.5: 115 Over 44.5 ★★★☆☆ 52%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline North Queensland Cowboys 3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 -12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: North Queensland Cowboys at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Cowboys are predicted to win due to their current form and scoring potential.

Predicted Score: Cowboys 25, Warriors 20


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