Match Analysis: Bahia vs Nacional de Montevideo - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-07
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Not explicitly stated in available data, but likely Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador, Brazil) based on Bahia's home matches[1][4]
Game Overview
Critical Copa Libertadores group stage match with Bahia seeking to build on recent momentum, having beaten both Nacional (COL)[2] and Nacional (URY)[3][5] in previous rounds. Nacional de Montevideo faces pressure to rebound after a 0-1 home loss to Bahia in April[3][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Bahia demonstrated effective counter-pressing and set-piece dominance (10 corners) against Nacional (COL)[2], while Nacional (URY) struggled with ball retention and defensive structure in their previous meeting[3][5].
- Recent encounter on 9 April 2025 saw Bahia win 1-0 at Nacional (URY)[3][5].
- No specific injury data available from provided sources.
- Final will be held in Lima[4], but this match's location in Brazil's northeastern region could create travel fatigue for Nacional.
- Bahia looking to solidify knockout stage position; Nacional needing points to avoid early elimination.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia -180 | Draw 290 | Nacional +500 | Bahia ML | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Bahia -1 (-110) | Nacional +1 (-120) | Nacional +1 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-125) | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bahia to win through sustained pressure and counterattacking efficiency, though likely low-scoring given Nacional's defensive focus.
Predicted Score: Bahia 1-0 Nacional de Montevideo
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