Match Analysis: Rio Ave FC vs CF Estrela - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-05
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Unspecified (likely Rio Ave FC home ground)
Game Overview
Rio Ave holds a historical edge over Estrela Amadora, winning 4 of their last 9 meetings. Estrela currently struggles with form, while Rio Ave’s home performance shows high goal involvement (over 1.5 goals in 90.48% of home matches).
Key Factors to Consider
- Estrela Amadora in poor Liga Portugal form with only 2 recent away wins. Rio Ave averages 1.19 goals per match this season with strong home over 1.5 goals consistency.
- Rio Ave won 4 of last 9 H2H matches (last 5 games: 2 Rio Ave wins, 1 Estrela win, 2 draws). Average goals per H2H match: 3.00.
- No specific injury data available from provided sources.
- High probability of goals (Rio Ave’s 66.67% over 2.5 goals rate at home suggests attacking emphasis).
- Rio Ave’s superior league position (11th vs 16th per historical data) indicates potential urgency from Estrela to avoid relegation.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: 151, draw: 220, away: 172 | Rio Ave FC | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Spread | home: 0 (-127), away: 0 (+107) | Rio Ave FC (0) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | over: 2.25 (-130), under: 2.25 (+110) | Over 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Rio Ave FC 13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.25 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Rio Ave FC at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rio Ave slight favorites due to H2H advantage and home goal-scoring tendencies, but expect tight contest given Estrela’s desperation.
Predicted Score: 2-1 Rio Ave FC
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