Match Analysis: Alianza Lima vs Sao Paulo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: May 06, 2025
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima, PER
Game Overview
CONMEBOL Libertadores Group D clash between Alianza Lima (Peru) and São Paulo (Brazil), with São Paulo holding a slight edge in attacking quality based on recent performances. Their previous encounter ended 2-2 on April 10, 2025[2][3], showcasing tightly contested gameplay.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams scored 5 goals in the group stage (as of April 10), but São Paulo’s superior squad depth and Ferreira’s scoring form (2 goals) make them favorites[1][3]. Alianza Lima’s Guerrero (2 goals) remains their primary threat[1].
- 1-0-1 (last two matches, including April 10 draw), demonstrating competitive parity[2][3].
- No specific injury reports available in search results, but São Paulo’s substitutes like Jandrei and Matheus Alves provide bench depth[3].
- Home advantage for Alianza Lima at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, known for intense atmospheres[1][4].
- Crucial group stage match where goal difference could determine knockout qualification.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alianza Lima: 235 | São Paulo: 130 | Draw: 210 | São Paulo (ML) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | São Paulo -0.5 (est.) | São Paulo cover -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5: -200 | Under 1.5: 155 | Over 1.5 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sao Paulo 51% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 -3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Sao Paulo at 51% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
São Paulo to edge a narrow victory (1-2) due to superior individual quality, though Alianza’s home pressure may force a draw.
Predicted Score: 1-2
