Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-04
- Time: 6:11 PM UTC
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs (21-13) aim to secure a series sweep against the Milwaukee Brewers (16-18) after dominant performances in the first two games (10-0, 6-2 wins). Shota Imanaga (3-1, 2.77 ERA) starts for the Cubs, while Freddy Peralta's ERA data remains unclear. The Cubs lead MLB in runs per game (6.12) but rank 15th in ERA (3.86), while the Brewers' offense struggles against Chicago's pitching.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cubs' offense (1st in MLB in runs/game) contrasts with Brewers' inconsistent production. Cubs' bullpen has limited Brewers to 2 runs in 18 innings this series.
- Cubs won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 16-2, extending their recent dominance over Milwaukee.
- No specific injury updates provided in available data.
- 56°F game temperature with 14 mph winds – neutral conditions for scoring. Low-pressure situation for Cubs (series already secured) vs Brewers' desperation to avoid sweep.
- Brewers face home sweep humiliation, potentially heightening urgency. Cubs seek to maintain NL Central lead and momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | CHC -108 / MIL -108 | Cubs Moneyline | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Spread | CHC -1.5 (+142) / MIL +1.5 (-172) | Brewers +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 (-118) / Under 7.5 (-104) | Under 7.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs 4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Chicago Cubs at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cubs moneyline (-108) and Under 7.5 (-104) present strongest value. Brewers' lineup shows systemic weaknesses against Cubs pitching, while Chicago's offense faces Freddy Peralta's unknown current form.
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 4-3 Milwaukee Brewers