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Nong-O Hama vs. Kongthoranee Sor Sommai Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Nong-O Hama vs Kongthoranee Sor Sommai – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-02
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Lumpinee Stadium, Bangkok

Game Overview

Rematch of February's split-decision bout at ONE Fight Night 28, upgraded to main event status. Nong-O seeks redemption in his second flyweight appearance, while Kongthoranee aims to cement his #3 ranking through aggressive preparation at PK Saenchai.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Kongthoranee undefeated (3-0) in ONE with improved cardio, Nong-O transitioning from dominant bantamweight reign to flyweight
  • 1-0 Kongthoranee via disputed split decision
  • No reported injuries; Kongthoranee emphasizes peak physical conditioning
  • Strong home crowd advantage for Nong-O (Thai veteran), Kongthoranee's camp features training with two-sport champion Prajanchai
  • Nong-O vows tactical adjustments and finish attempt; Kongthoranereveals intensified training regimen with nutrition optimization

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Kongthoranee -165 / Nong-O +125 Kongthoranee ML ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under O2.5 Rounds -300 / U2.5 Rounds +240 (estimated) Over 2.5 Rounds ★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Kongthoranee Sor Sommai 40%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Kongthoranee Sor Sommai at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kongthoranee by decision (55-45 advantage) via sustained volume and cardio edge, though Nong-O's veteran savvy creates high-risk for counter finishes

Predicted Score: Kongthoranee by split decision (29-28)


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Nong-O Hama vs. Kongthoranee Sor Sommai Prediction

Match Analysis: Nong-O Hama vs Kongthoranee Sor Sommai – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-05-02 Time: 11:00 PM UTC Location: Lumpinee Stadium, Bangkok Game Overview Rematch of February's split-decision bout at ONE Fight Night 28, upgraded to main event status. Nong-O seeks redemption in his second flyweight appearance, while Kongthoranee aims to cement his #3 ranking […]

Kongthoranee Sor Sommai May 2, 2025 MMA/Boxing Nong-O Hama

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Marina Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Marina Rodriguez vs Gillian Robertson – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-03
  • Time: 12:45 AM UTC
  • Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA

Game Overview

Strawweight bout between No. 9-ranked Marina Rodriguez (17-5-2) and No. 12 Gillian Robertson (15-8) at UFC Fight Night prelims. Rodriguez (1-4 in last 5) faces Robertson (5-1 in last 6), who thrives since returning to 115lbs in 2023.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Rodriguez averages 4.64 significant strikes/min (46% accuracy) with 55% defense. Robertson lands 2.89/min (48% accuracy) with 56% defense. Rodriguez struggles against grapplers, while Robertson excels in ground control.
  • First meeting between fighters.
  • No reported injuries.
  • Strawweight division is wide open; winner could enter title conversation. Rodriguez’s recent split-decision losses suggest judging trends may favor activity over control time.
  • Robertson (-305 favorite) seeks sixth win in seven fights to secure Top 10 status. Rodriguez (+245 underdog) fights to avoid three-fight skid and career decline.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Robertson -305 / Rodriguez +245 Robertson ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Robertson -3.5 (-120) / Rodriguez +3.5 (-110) Robertson -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-238) / Under 2.5 (+180) Over 2.5 ★★★★☆ 85%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Gillian Robertson -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Robertson by decision (70% confidence) via superior grappling control and Rodriguez’s declining takedown defense. Rodriguez’s striking edge unlikely to offset Robertson’s ground dominance over three rounds.

Predicted Score: Robertson by unanimous decision (29-28 x3)


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Ryan Loder vs. Azamat Bekoev Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Ryan Loder vs Azamat Bekoev – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 3, 2025
  • Time: 12:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA

Game Overview

Middleweight bout featuring Ryan 'Man of Steel' Loder (8-1-0) vs Azamat 'Iron' Bekoev (19-3-0). Both fighters are coming off successful UFC debuts, with Loder showcasing wrestling pedigree and Bekoev demonstrating higher striking volume (6.85 vs 6.16 sig. strikes/min).

Key Factors to Consider

  • Bekoev holds significant edge in professional experience (19 wins vs 8). Loder's wrestling background could neutralize Bekoev's striking advantage if he implements grappling-heavy approach.
  • First meeting between fighters.
  • No reported injuries pre-fight.
  • Event takes place in Loder's home country (USA vs Russia) but no clear venue advantage specified.
  • Critical matchup for establishing position in UFC middleweight division, with both fighters seeking second consecutive UFC win.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bekoev -410 | Loder +320 Azamat Bekoev ★★★★☆ 73%
Spread Bekoev -3.5 (-205) | Loder +3.5 (+150) Bekoev -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-115) | Under 2.5 (-115) Over 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Azamat Bekoev -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 18%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bekoev by decision (60% confidence) – superior striking volume (6.85/min vs 6.16) and defensive metrics suggest he can outpoint Loder if kept standing. Potential for Loder submission upset if fight hits mat.

Predicted Score: Bekoev via unanimous decision (29-28)


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Gaston Bolanos vs. Quang Le Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Gaston Bolanos vs Quang Le – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 3, 2025
  • Time: 12:15 AM UTC
  • Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC bantamweight bout between Gaston Bolanos and Quang Le is a significant matchup for both fighters seeking to solidify their positions in the UFC. Bolanos, with a record of 8-4, has shown strong striking skills, while Le, 8-2, has faced setbacks in his recent UFC appearances.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Bolanos has secured six of his eight wins via knockout and has a solid UFC performance record. Le, known for his knockout potential, has struggled in recent fights, losing to Chris Gutierrez and Xiao Long.
  • This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter.
  • The fight is part of a major UFC event, which could impact performance due to the high stakes.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a win and improve their UFC standing.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bolanos: -130, Le: 110 Gaston Bolanos ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Bolanos: -3.5 125, Le: 3.5 -175 Gaston Bolanos ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -166, Under: 2.5 130 Over 2.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Gaston Bolanos 3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Gaston Bolanos at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gaston Bolanos is favored to win due to his consistent performances and well-rounded skills.

Predicted Score: Gaston Bolanos wins via decision (30-27 or similar).


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Thomas Petersen vs. Don'Tale Mayes Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Thomas Petersen vs Don'Tale Mayes – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 3, 2025
  • Time: 11:20 PM UTC
  • Location: Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, IA

Game Overview

The fight between Thomas Petersen and Don'Tale Mayes is a heavyweight bout taking place at UFC Fight Night on May 3, 2025. Both fighters are looking to rebound from recent losses. Petersen is known for his wrestling background, while Mayes brings a significant physical presence and knockout power.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Thomas Petersen has a record of 9-3 but has struggled with striking defense. Don'Tale Mayes has an 11-8 record and has been inconsistent, losing two straight fights.
  • There is no significant head-to-head data available for this match.
  • No notable injuries have been reported for either fighter.
  • Both fighters are motivated to start a winning streak after recent defeats.
  • High motivation on both sides to secure a victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Thomas Petersen: -255, Don'Tale Mayes: 215 Thomas Petersen Not available
Over/under over: -154, under: 124 Over 2.5 Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Thomas Petersen 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Thomas Petersen is favored to win due to his wrestling background and recent form, but Mayes' size and knockout power could pose a challenge.

Predicted Score: Not applicable for MMA fights


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Juliana Miller vs. Ivana Petrovic Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Juliana Miller vs Ivana Petrovic – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-03
  • Time: 11:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, IA

Game Overview

Flyweight bout between Juliana Miller (4-3-0, 1-2 UFC), an aggressive striker with defensive vulnerabilities, and Ivana Petrovic (7-2-0, 1-2 UFC), a durable southpaw with superior reach and decision-oriented style. Miller's UFC future may hinge on this fight[2][5].

Key Factors to Consider

  • Miller lands 3.31 significant strikes/min (45% accuracy) but absorbs 4.75/min (32% defense). Petrovic lands 2.00/min (39% accuracy) while allowing only 2.27/min (55% defense)[1].
  • First meeting between fighters.
  • No reported injuries.
  • Miller's 18-month layoff vs. Petrovic's recent activity. 5'8" Petrovic holds 4" reach advantage[1][2].
  • Miller potentially fighting for UFC roster spot; Petrovic seeking second UFC win[2][5].

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Petrovic -220 / Miller +185 Petrovic moneyline ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds -210 / Under 2.5 +170 Over 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ivana Petrovic 85%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Ivana Petrovic at 85% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 46.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Petrovic by decision (confidence: 75%) via superior defense, reach advantage, and Miller's tendency to fade against technical strikers[1][2][5].

Predicted Score: Petrovic via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)


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Zhang Lipeng vs. Lucas Gabriel Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Zhang Lipeng vs Lucas Gabriel – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-02
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Lumpinee Stadium, Bangkok

Game Overview

Zhang Lipeng (35), a Chinese veteran with extensive experience, faces Brazilian rising star Lucas Gabriel (25) in a lightweight MMA bout at ONE Fight Night 31. Zhang aims to leverage his power and veteran savvy to derail Gabriel's momentum, while the Brazilian seeks to validate his hype with a statement win in his U.S. primetime debut.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Zhang is coming off a dominant TKO victory over Hiroyuki Tetsuka[1][3], demonstrating elite finishing ability. Gabriel holds a 9-1 record with three consecutive ONE Friday Fights wins, including a comeback submission against Gadzhimurad Amirzhanov[3][5].
  • First meeting between fighters.
  • No reported injuries.
  • Zhang's experience (50+ fights) contrasts with Gabriel's relative inexperience on main cards[2][3]. Gabriel's U.S. primetime debut pressure versus Zhang's comfort in high-profile bouts[3].
  • Zhang explicitly aims to 'show levels' and prove his championship readiness[2], while Gabriel seeks to establish himself as a lightweight contender[5].

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gabriel -250 / Zhang +170 Lucas Gabriel ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 1.5 Rounds -150 / Under 1.5 +130 (estimated) Over 1.5 Rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Lucas Gabriel -9%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Lucas Gabriel at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Lucas Gabriel by submission (R2/R3) due to superior grappling pedigree and durability under pressure, outweighing Zhang's power advantage. However, Zhang's veteran counter-striking presents a live underdog threat.

Predicted Score: Lucas Gabriel def. Zhang Lipeng via submission (rear-naked choke), Round 2


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Nauzet Trujillo vs. Liam Nolan Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Nauzet Trujillo vs Liam Nolan – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-02
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Lumpinee Stadium, Bangkok

Game Overview

Originally scheduled as a lightweight Muay Thai rematch, Liam Nolan's opponent was changed to Abolfazl Alipourandi after Nauzet Trujillo withdrew. However, based on the query's focus on Trujillo vs. Nolan, this analysis assumes the original matchup is active (contrary to live updates). Historical context: Trujillo defeated Nolan via unanimous decision in February 2024 with a second-round knockdown, but Nolan returns with a revamped team (Michael Wakeling, Danny Beevor) and renewed focus after CEO Chatri Sityodtong personally persuaded him out of retirement[1][3][5].

Key Factors to Consider

  • Trujillo holds a 1-2 ONE Championship record (losses to top-tier competition). Nolan, a former WBC Muay Thai champion, rebuilt his training camp but lacks recent in-competition data due to retirement[1][2][5].
  • Trujillo leads 1-0; utilized forward pressure and clinch dominance in their first meeting. Nolan claims improved overall skills but admits Trujillo's danger[1][2][4].
  • Nolan previously fought through a broken bone during their first match. No current injury reports, but Trujillo's withdrawal reason remains unspecified[1][3].
  • Venue familiarity (Lumpinee Stadium) neutral. Late opponent changes likely introduce preparation instability (though Nolan's new team appears structured)[3][5].
  • Nolan seeks redemption and title contention. Trujillo aims to solidify standing in the division after mixed results[1][2][5].

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Liam Nolan (-240), Nauzet Trujillo (+165) Liam Nolan ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Liam Nolan -8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Liam Nolan at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nolan by decision (if fight proceeds as queried). Higher technical output expected from rebuilt striking arsenal offsets Trujillo's pressure-based approach.

Predicted Score: Unavailable (non-scoring sport). Method prediction: Nolan via unanimous decision (if match occurred). Reality note: Nolan now faces Alipourandi per latest updates[3][5].


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Tye Ruotolo vs. Dante Leon Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Tye Ruotolo vs Dante Leon – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-02
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Lumpinee Stadium, Bangkok, Thailand

Game Overview

This is a submission grappling world title trilogy match between reigning ONE welterweight champion Tye Ruotolo (7-0 in ONE) and challenger Dante Leon, with their head-to-head record tied 1-1. The bout serves as the co-main event of ONE Fight Night 31, marking their first meeting under ONE Championship rules.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Ruotolo is undefeated in ONE Championship (7-0) with multiple submission wins. Leon is a two-time IBJJF world champion, though less tested under ONE's unique submission-only ruleset.
  • Split 1-1 (Leon won their first meeting pre-ONE, Ruotolo won the second). This rubber match occurs under ONE's distinct rule set favoring aggressive submission hunting.
  • Ruotolo recently recovered from a 2024 knee injury but has had 9 months to rehab. No recent injury reports for Leon.
  • Ruotolo's imminent MMA debut plans (vs. Adrian Lee) could either motivate exceptional performance or create distraction, though he claims full focus on Leon.
  • Leon explicitly states this represents 'the best era of submission grappling' and seeks to cement his legacy. Ruotolo aims to maintain his unbeaten ONE streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Ruotolo -350 / Leon +225 Ruotolo moneyline ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Tye Ruotolo 128%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Tye Ruotolo at 128% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 56.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ruotolo by submission (confidence: 75%) due to superior ONE-specific experience and rule set mastery. Leon's +225 odds represent value for an upset given his world-class pedigree.

Predicted Score: Submission victory for Ruotolo via choke/leg lock within regulation time (10 min).


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Jared Warren vs. Joseph Creer Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jared Warren vs Joseph Creer – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 2, 2025
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: OCC Road House & Museum in Clearwater, FL

Game Overview

Jared Warren, the former BKFC World Light-Heavyweight Champion, faces Joseph Creer in the main event of BKFC Fight Night Clearwater. Warren has a strong background and experience, while Creer is highly motivated and making significant strides in his career.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Jared Warren has a notable record and experience in the BKFC, while Joseph Creer is hungry for success after transitioning from his military career to martial arts.
  • There is no recorded match between the two, but stylistically, Creer’s adaptability and Warren’s championship experience make for a compelling contest.
  • No injuries reported for either fighter.
  • The fight is at the OCC Road House & Museum in Clearwater, a venue that could potentially favor the hometown favorite if applicable, though both are U.S.-based fighters.
  • Creer is highly motivated due to his personal journey and ambition for a title shot.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Jared Warren: -175, Joseph Creer: +135 Jared Warren to win ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Jared Warren -9%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jared Warren at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jared Warren's experience gives him an edge, but Joseph Creer's hunger for success and strong preparation could lead to a competitive fight.

Predicted Score: No specific score prediction for MMA fights, but Warren is favored.


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