Match Analysis: Plymouth Argyle vs Leeds United – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 3 May 2025
- Time: 11:30 AM UTC
- Location: Home Park, Plymouth, England
Game Overview
Leeds United, currently 1st in the Championship with 97 points, face 23rd-placed Plymouth Argyle in the final matchday. Leeds boast the league's best attack (93 goals) and a +64 GD, while Plymouth have conceded the most goals (86). A title-deciding match with Leeds needing a win to secure promotion and potentially overtake Burnley on goal difference.
Key Factors to Consider
- Leeds have lost just 4 games all season, while Plymouth have won only 10 matches. Leeds' last meeting with Plymouth in November 2024 ended 3-0 to Leeds.
- Leeds won 3-0 in their last meeting (Nov 2024) and hold a clear historical advantage. This season's earlier fixtures show Leeds' attacking dominance.
- No specific injury data available, but Leeds' squad depth suggests minimal disruption to their starting XI.
- Plymouth's Home Park atmosphere could prove challenging, but Leeds' title-chasing momentum outweighs this factor.
- Leeds need a win to secure the title, potentially reaching 100 points. Plymouth are virtually relegated but may play for pride.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | {Leeds: -360, Plymouth: 825, Draw: 460} | Leeds United | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Spread | Leeds -1.5 (-122), Plymouth +1.5 (102) | Leeds -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 3 (-112), Under 3 (-108) | Over 3 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Leeds United -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Leeds United to dominate with a multi-goal victory, leveraging superior squad quality and high stakes.
Predicted Score: Leeds United 3-0 Plymouth Argyle