Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-30
- Time: 11:40 PM UTC
- Location: Amalie Arena (Tampa, FL)
Game Overview
Florida Panthers lead the series 3-1 after a dramatic 4-2 comeback win in Game 4, scoring two third-period goals 11 seconds apart. The Lightning must win to avoid elimination.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Panthers' defense scored twice in 11 seconds (playoff record for defensemen) to erase a 2-1 deficit. Tampa Bay has struggled to close games, wasting a third-period lead in Game 4.
- Panthers hold a psychological edge after consecutive wins, including two road victories earlier in the series.
- Brandon Hagel (TBL) left Game 4 after a high hit from Aaron Ekblad; status unclear for Game 5.
- Tampa Bay's home crowd creates high-pressure environment, but Panthers thrive on road (won Games 1 & 2 at Amalie Arena).
- Lightning face elimination; Panthers aim to close series early to preserve energy for next round.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | FLA +105 / TBL -125 | Florida Panthers | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | FLA +1.5 (-250) / TBL -1.5 (+205) | Panthers +1.5 | 85% (covers all outcomes except 2+ goal Lightning win) |
Over/under | Over 5.5 (-118) / Under 5.5 (-102) | Over 5.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning 13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 5.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Florida Panthers moneyline (road underdog value) based on recent clutch performance and defensive momentum.
Predicted Score: Florida Panthers 3-2 (OT)
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