Match Analysis: Toronto FC vs New York City FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-26
- Time: 6:30 PM UTC
- Location: Toronto FC Home Stadium
Game Overview
Toronto FC hosts New York City FC in an evenly matched MLS contest. Historically, these two teams have played 27 times with New York City FC slightly ahead with 11 wins compared to Toronto's 9, and 7 draws. Both teams have averaged 1.7 points per game in their encounters, with an overall average of about 3.4 goals per match, indicating a relatively open and competitive fixture.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto FC’s recent form shows 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games, averaging only 0.6 goals scored and conceded per match, with a 60% Asian handicap win rate. New York City FC has a better recent record with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 1.0 goals per match but conceding 1.6 goals, with a 40% Asian handicap win rate.
- The head-to-head record is close: Toronto FC won 9 matches, New York City FC won 11, and 7 games ended in a draw. The teams have a high probability for over 2.5 goals historically (over 80% in some stats), but recent matches show fewer high scoring games, with both sides showing only 20% total goals over 2.5 in last five games.
- No specific injury data available from the sources, so both teams may likely field their strongest lineups.
- Playing at home, Toronto FC may have slight home advantage. Weather or other external factors were not mentioned, so presumed neutral.
- Both teams are motivated to gain points in the tightly contested MLS standings, with New York City FC showing slightly better recent form offering them a psychological edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York City FC: 185, Toronto FC: 150, Draw: 240 | Toronto FC win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | New York City FC: 10.5, Toronto FC: -0.125 | Toronto FC on the spread (0) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -0.11, Under 2.5: -0.11 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toronto FC 13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 34% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the close head-to-head history, recent form, and home advantage, the match is likely to be tight. The predicted outcome is a narrow Toronto FC win or a draw, with a low scoring game overall.
Predicted Score: 1-0
