Match Analysis: Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 12:40 AM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Featherweight matchup featuring Diego Lopes, a 30-year-old with a 26-7 record and longer reach, against Jean Silva, a 28-year-old with a 16-2 record and a strong technical striking profile. Silva enters as a UFC favorite riding an undefeated UFC record with recent finishes, while Lopes recently lost a title fight but has shown toughness and durability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Silva is undefeated in the UFC and has finished his last five opponents, showing excellent striking and grappling defense. Lopes has a solid overall record, coming off a title fight loss and known for durability but is more vulnerable to counters.
• No direct H2H fights recorded between Lopes and Silva.
• No major injuries reported for either fighter leading up to the fight.
• Fight at home territory Frost Bank Center with no external disruptions reported.
• Lopes motivated to rebound after title fight loss; Silva motivated to maintain undefeated UFC streak and extend dominance.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Diego Lopes: +195, Jean Silva: -238	Jean Silva	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Diego Lopes +5.5: +120, Jean Silva -5.5: -165	Jean Silva -5.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -166, Under 2.5: +130	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jean Silva -12%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 43%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 43% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jean Silva to win by decision

Predicted Score: Jean Silva wins by unanimous decision (rounds 5)

Match Analysis: Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Lightweight bout between Rafa Garcia and Jared Gordon on UFC Fight Night 259 with Gordon as a strong favorite based on striking volume and accuracy versus Garcia's grappling strength.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jared Gordon holds a record of 21-7-0 (1 NC) and exhibits higher striking volume (5.67 per minute) and accuracy (55%) than Rafa Garcia's 4.01 strikes per minute and 43% accuracy. Garcia has a better takedown rate (3.21 per 15 minutes) and submission threat with eight submission wins.
• No direct previous matchups recorded between Rafa Garcia and Jared Gordon.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter approaching the bout.
• Fight scheduled at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, neither fighter has a strong home advantage. The event timing and travel appear neutral.
• Both fighters are motivated to climb the lightweight rankings. Gordon’s recent KO win boosts confidence, while Garcia aims to capitalize early rounds with grappling.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jared Gordon -250, Rafa Garcia +205	Jared Gordon	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Jared Gordon -3.5 100, Rafa Garcia +3.5 -140	Jared Gordon -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -330, Under 2.5 +240	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jared Gordon -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jared Gordon at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jared Gordon to win by decision

Predicted Score: Jared Gordon wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Rob Font vs David Martinez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-14
• Time: 12:10 AM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

The bantamweight UFC matchup features veteran Rob Font (22-8) facing the younger, rising star David Martinez (12-1). Font is experienced, employing a precise striking style with solid defense, while Martinez is aggressive with high accuracy and a clean record. Both fighters stand orthodox, with Font having a slight reach advantage and absorbing more strikes per minute.

Key Factors to Consider

• Font’s consistency and octagon experience give him an edge, but Martinez shows elite striking efficiency and durability, demonstrated by his undefeated record and recent TKO finish.
• No prior direct matchups between Font and Martinez, making analysis reliant on style and recent form comparisons.
• No reported injuries for either fighter; Martinez stepped in on short notice but appears healthy and motivated.
• Fight at Frost Bank Center favors Font slightly due to proximity and crowd support, but Martinez’s momentum as a rising star balances this factor.
• Font seeks to maintain top contender status at 38 years old; Martinez looks to solidify breakout status and prove himself against a seasoned opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Font: -130, Martinez: +110	Rob Font	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Font -3.5 165, Martinez +3.5 -230	Rob Font -3.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -315, Under 2.5 230	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Rob Font 3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 105%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 105% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 45.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Rob Font to win by decision

Predicted Score: Rob Font wins via unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 11:10 PM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Middleweight MMA bout between Kelvin Gastelum and Dustin Stoltzfus as part of UFC Noche 3. Gastelum is the betting favorite with a strong striking profile and reach disadvantage, while Stoltzfus offers a longer reach and slightly better striking accuracy. Both athletes are same age, with Gastelum seeking to recover from recent losses and Stoltzfus aiming to regain momentum after a defeat.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kelvin Gastelum holds a 20-10 record with a tendency for high-volume striking but has had recent setbacks. Dustin Stoltzfus is 16-7, showing durable defense and decent striking accuracy but lacks consistent finishing power.
• No recorded previous head-to-head matchups between Gastelum and Stoltzfus, making stylistic analysis and recent form critical.
• No significant injuries publicly reported affecting either fighter going into the matchup.
• Fighting at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, an even venue without clear home advantage. Both fighters are familiar with competing in similar environments.
• Gastelum motivated to rebound from recent losses and maintain relevance in middleweight rankings. Stoltzfus aims to build momentum after a recent loss, making him a dangerous underdog.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gastelum -250, Stoltzfus +205	Kelvin Gastelum	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Gastelum -3.5 -120, Stoltzfus +3.5 -110	Kelvin Gastelum -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -215, Under 2.5 +165	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kelvin Gastelum -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 59%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 59% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kelvin Gastelum to win by decision

Predicted Score: Kelvin Gastelum wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Quang Le vs Santiago Luna – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 10:45 PM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas, USA

Game Overview

In this UFC Bantamweight matchup, Santiago Luna makes his UFC debut at 6-0 MMA record with a 100% finish rate, while Quang Le, with a 9-2 record and 1-2 in UFC fights, looks to rebound after an inconsistent UFC start.

Key Factors to Consider

• Luna has won all 6 pro MMA fights by finish, demonstrating strong finishing ability (2 KOs, 4 submissions). Le has solid striking but lower accuracy and defense, offset by high takedown defense (100%) and solid grappling.
• No previous head-to-head encounters between Luna and Le.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight takes place at Frost Bank Center in Luna's UFC debut; Luna may have added motivation to impress. Le may face pressure to stabilize UFC performance record.
• Luna is highly motivated to make a statement in his UFC debut with flawless finishing record; Le aims to improve UFC standing after early setbacks.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Quang Le: +114, Santiago Luna: -135	Santiago Luna	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Quang Le +3.5: -155, Santiago Luna -3.5: +115	Santiago Luna -3.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -125, Under 2.5: -105	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Santiago Luna -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 21%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Santiago Luna to win by finish

Predicted Score: Santiago Luna wins by submission or KO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Jose Daniel Medina vs Dusko Todorovic – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX

Game Overview

Middleweight UFC matchup between Jose Daniel Medina and Dusko Todorovic featuring contrasting striking volume and accuracy, with Todorovic favored by sportsbooks due to his higher significant strike rate and defense.

Key Factors to Consider

• Dusko Todorovic has a record of 12-6 with a high output of 4.79 significant strikes per minute landing at 57% accuracy, while Medina is 11-5 with 2.18 significant strikes per minute at 36% accuracy; Todorovic's superior striking volume and defense advantage imply better recent form.
• No direct head-to-head matchups recorded between these two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, indicating both appear physically prepared.
• Fight takes place at a neutral venue in San Antonio, no notable external factors affecting either fighter.
• Both fighters motivated to improve UFC rankings; Todorovic looking to capitalize on momentum with more finishes, Medina aiming to prove himself as an underdog.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: +270, away: -340	Dusko Todorovic	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	DuskoTodrovic: -5.5 @ -120, JoseMedina: +5.5 @ -110	Dusko Todorovic -5.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over: 1.5 @ -250, under: 1.5 @ 190	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Dusko Todorovic -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Dusko Todorovic at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Dusko Todorovic to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Dusko Todorovic wins by decision or late finish, likely after Round 2

Match Analysis: Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 10:15 PM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

UFC lightweight bout featuring Claudio Puelles (29, 13-4-0) versus Joaquim Silva (36, 13-6-0), both southpaws with contrasting styles. Puelles known for solid submission game and defensive striking, Silva for higher volume striking and durability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Puelles is coming off a loss after a long layoff, but historically durable and has a high submission threat. Silva has been more active recently but on a two-fight losing streak; Silva lands more significant strikes per minute but absorbs more as well.
• No direct head-to-head fights found between Puelles and Silva, making this a stylistic clash rather than familiarity-based.
• No current reported injuries for either fighter impacting performance.
• Fight is at a neutral venue; no home advantage for either. Both fighters have similar southpaw stance, minimizing stance-related advantages.
• Puelles looks motivated to rebound after recent setbacks and long layoffs; Silva seeks to end a losing streak and stabilize his UFC trajectory.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Claudio Puelles: -112, Joaquim Silva: -108	Joaquim Silva	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Claudio Puelles -3.5: +140, Joaquim Silva +3.5: -195	Joaquim Silva +3.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -140, Under 2.5 rounds: +110	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Joaquim Silva -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Joaquim Silva by Decision

Predicted Score: Joaquim Silva wins via 3-round decision

Match Analysis: Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 9:45 PM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Tatiana Suarez faces Amanda Lemos in a highly anticipated strawweight bout, with Suarez favored due to superior striking accuracy and defense, recent competitive form, and motivation to rebound after her first career loss.

Key Factors to Consider

• Suarez holds an 11-1 record with a high striking accuracy (61%) and strong defense, allowing only 1.58 significant strikes per minute. Lemos is 15-4-1, landing 54% of strikes and absorbing 3.46 per minute, indicating Suarez's dominance in striking exchanges.
• No prior head-to-head fights recorded between Suarez and Lemos.
• No current injury reports affecting either fighter as of fight week.
• Fight takes place at a neutral venue; no external environmental or travel-related disadvantages reported.
• Suarez is highly motivated to rebound from her first career loss and reassert her position as a title contender. Lemos aims to break into the top tier with a win, making the motivation relatively even but with Suarez slightly favored due to recent title experience.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Tatiana Suarez -455 / Amanda Lemos +350	Tatiana Suarez	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Tatiana Suarez -7.5 (-140) / Amanda Lemos +7.5 (+100)	Tatiana Suarez -7.5	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds (+100) / Under 2.5 rounds (-130)	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Tatiana Suarez -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Tatiana Suarez to win by decision

Predicted Score: Suarez wins by unanimous decision (3-0 rounds)

Match Analysis: Jesus Santos Aguilar vs Luis Gurule – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 9:15 PM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Flyweight bout between aggressive striker Jesus Santos Aguilar and technically skilled wrestler Luis Gurule.

Key Factors to Consider

• Aguilar is known for forward pressure striking and KO power but has a weaker takedown defense. Gurule boasts strong wrestling skills and comparable striking, making him a balanced and resilient fighter.
• No recorded previous meetings between Aguilar and Gurule, making this a fresh matchup with no direct H2H data.
• No reported recent injuries for either fighter, both appear healthy and fight-ready.
• Fight is at a neutral venue with no significant altitude or climate issues. Both fighters are performing in their prime age range.
• Gurule (10-1) motivated to maintain near-perfect record; Aguilar (11-3) looking to rebound and prove knockout resilience after previous hard fight.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jesus Santos Aguilar: +170, Luis Gurule: -205	Luis Gurule	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Jesus Santos Aguilar +3.5: -125, Luis Gurule -3.5: -105	Luis Gurule -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -166, Under 2.5 rounds: +130	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Luis Gurule -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Luis Gurule to win by decision

Predicted Score: Luis Gurule wins via decision (3 rounds)