Match Analysis: Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-16
• Time: 5:30 AM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, USA

Game Overview

UFC 322 main event title fight between welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena and challenger Islam Makhachev. Jack is a powerful precision boxer with strong knockout potential if he can keep the fight standing, while Islam is a grappling and top-control specialist with elite endurance and takedown ability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Della Maddalena shows high knockout power and striking accuracy, averaging 6.84 significant strikes per minute with 56.6% accuracy. Makhachev uses superior wrestling, averaging 3.20 takedowns per fight with 53.62% accuracy, maintaining pressure and top control throughout.
• No prior direct fights between these two, making tactical matchups and styles key. Makhachev has historically dominated opponents through grappling control, while Della Maddalena succeeds by keeping the fight standing and exploiting striking advantage.
• No reported injuries on either side leading into this high-profile title bout.
• Fight is held at Madison Square Garden, adding hype and pressure but is a neutral venue for both. Both fighters show strong motivation with title on the line and reputation at stake.
• Della Maddalena motivated to defend title aggressively with his boxing; Makhachev motivated to reclaim welterweight belt using his grappling dominance and relentless pace.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: 230, away: -285	Islam Makhachev	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	home: 110, away: -150	Islam Makhachev -5.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over: -135, under: 105	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Islam Makhachev -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 3.5 44%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 44% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Islam Makhachev wins by decision or late-round submission due to superior grappling control and cardio, neutralizing Della Maddalena's striking threat.

Predicted Score: Islam Makhachev wins via unanimous decision or submission in round 4 or 5

Match Analysis: Valentina Shevchenko vs Weili Zhang – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 4:45 AM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City

Game Overview

UFC 322 main event flyweight title unification bout. Valentina Shevchenko (dominant incumbent flyweight champion) defends against Weili Zhang (former strawweight champion moving up in weight). This is a super fight between two elite combat athletes at different weight classes, with significant stylistic contrasts.

Key Factors to Consider

• Shevchenko: 10 title-fight wins since 2018, most recently defeated Manon Fiorot via decision. Established dominant flyweight champion with well-rounded skills. Zhang: Dominant strawweight run with two title reigns and three title defenses, recently defeated Tatiana Suarez via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-45) at UFC 312. Both fighters on strong recent form, but Shevchenko has superior championship experience at the target weight class.
• No previous matchup history between these fighters. Zhang is moving up in weight class for this title unification, which introduces uncertainty in how her skills translate.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Zhang moves up from strawweight to flyweight, a significant weight class jump that may affect her physical advantages and cardio efficiency. Shevchenko fights at home weight class with superior title experience at flyweight. MSG provides neutral venue without significant home field advantage.
• Both fighters are highly motivated in a title unification super fight. Shevchenko defends legacy as dominant champion. Zhang seeks to become a multi-division champion with an athletic and stylistically dangerous challenge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Shevchenko -135 / Zhang +114	Valentina Shevchenko	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Shevchenko -5.5 (-165) / Zhang +5.5 (+230)	Zhang +5.5	★★★☆☆ 66%
Over/under	Over 4.5 rounds (-270) / Under 4.5 rounds (+200)	Under 4.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Valentina Shevchenko 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Valentina Shevchenko at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Valentina Shevchenko wins by decision. The betting market undervalues Shevchenko's experience advantage at flyweight and her elite defensive skills. While Zhang's athleticism and striking pose real threats, Shevchenko's 10 title-fight wins and recent victory over a top contender position her as the more complete fighter at this weight class. The decision outcome (-110 to -140 range across books) offers the best risk-reward, as knockout is less likely given both fighters' technical styles.

Predicted Score: Valentina Shevchenko wins via unanimous or split decision after 3 rounds (or early stoppage favoring Shevchenko in round 2 if Zhang's weight class adjustment significantly impacts her performance).

Match Analysis: Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 3:45 AM UTC
• Location: New York

Game Overview

UFC 322 welterweight main card matchup between Leon Edwards and Carlos Prates. Edwards is transitioning from grappler-heavy opponents to face Prates, a striking-focused knockout artist. This represents a stylistic shift for Edwards and a significant test of his striking defense against a dangerous one-punch KO threat.

Key Factors to Consider

• Leon Edwards has faced primarily grappler and wrestler opponents in recent fights, requiring extensive takedown defense preparation. Carlos Prates is characterized as a one-punch knockout artist with exceptional striking power. Edwards expressed excitement about returning to three-round format after fighting primarily five-round bouts, suggesting this sprint-paced structure favors his conditioning and explosive style.
• No prior matchup history between these fighters.
• No injuries reported for either fighter.
• The fight takes place in New York, Edwards' preferred location with home-crowd advantage elements. Edwards expressed desire to return to UK fights in March-April, indicating strong motivation for a dominant victory to secure title-contender status. The three-round format (vs. Edwards' recent five-round pattern) creates a tactical variable favoring faster-paced, high-output fighters.
• Edwards is explicitly targeting a knockout finish to establish himself as a legitimate title contender in the welterweight division. Prates seeks to derail Edwards' title trajectory by capitalizing on his striking advantage. Edwards' stated eagerness to 'take out Carlos' and pursue international fights suggests high motivation for decisive victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Prates -185 / Edwards +160	Leon Edwards	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Prates -3.5 (-110) / Edwards +3.5 (-120)	Edwards +3.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 2.5 (-145) / Under 2.5 (+110)	Under 2.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Leon Edwards 61%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Leon Edwards at 61% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Leon Edwards wins by decision or submission in a competitive three-round affair. Despite Prates' knockout power, Edwards' superior grappling range, footwork discipline, and conditioning advantage in sprint-format fights provide edge in controlling fight tempo and accumulating points across all three rounds.

Predicted Score: Edwards 29-28 or 30-27 (Decision Victory)

Match Analysis: Ethyn Ewing vs Malcolm Wellmaker – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-16
• Time: 1:15 AM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Game Overview

Malcolm Wellmaker (10-0) enters as an undefeated and experienced UFC competitor whereas Ethyn Ewing (8-2) is making his UFC debut as a late replacement. Wellmaker is a significant favorite reflecting his superior experience and undefeated record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Wellmaker has a perfect 10-0 record with recent continuous wins, showing consistency and experience at higher competition levels. Ewing is 8-2 overall but has not fought in the UFC before, making this a step up in competition.
• No previous matchups between Wellmaker and Ewing exist, so no direct historical comparison is available.
• No injuries reported for either fighter ahead of this matchup, though Ewing’s late scratch replacement status may indicate some preparation disadvantage.
• Fight takes place at Madison Square Garden in UFC 322, offering a large stage but no known external conditions affecting performance such as altitude or travel advantage.
• Wellmaker looks to preserve his undefeated UFC status, while Ewing is highly motivated to make a strong impression in his UFC debut stepping in late.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ethyn Ewing: +400, Malcolm Wellmaker: -550	Malcolm Wellmaker	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Malcolm Wellmaker -1.5 rounds: -150, Ethyn Ewing +1.5 rounds: +130	Malcolm Wellmaker -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: +140, Under 1.5 rounds: -160	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Malcolm Wellmaker -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Malcolm Wellmaker to win by moneyline given his undefeated record and UFC experience, with a strong likelihood the fight goes under 1.5 rounds due to Wellmaker's finishing ability and Ewing’s debut pressure.

Predicted Score: Malcolm Wellmaker wins by TKO/Submission in Round 1

Match Analysis: Malcolm Wellmaker vs Cody Haddon – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-16
• Time: 1:15 AM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Game Overview

Malcolm Wellmaker (10-0) faces Cody Haddon (8-1) at UFC 322 in a bantamweight bout at 135 lbs. Wellmaker is a longer switch stance fighter with strong grappling skills and high strike accuracy, while Haddon is a shorter orthodox striker with higher volume but lower accuracy. Both fighters have solid defense but contrasting fighting styles set the tone for a tactical matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Wellmaker boasts an undefeated record (10-0) with a recent first-round KO win, showing efficient striking and grappling. Haddon has an 8-1 record with higher striking volume but lower connect rate, favoring stand-up exchanges.
• No prior head-to-head meetings. Styles contrast with Wellmaker favoring grappling control and powerful precision strikes, while Haddon relies on volume and speed.
• No known recent injuries reported for either fighter, both appear healthy and prepared.
• Fight hosted at Madison Square Garden, a neutral venue favoring neither fighter. No notable external distractions or motivation impacts.
• Wellmaker motivated to maintain undefeated streak and ascend rankings, Haddon eager to prove himself against an undefeated opponent. Slight edge to Wellmaker for title contention aspirations.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Malcolm Wellmaker -155, Cody Haddon +130	Malcolm Wellmaker	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Malcolm Wellmaker -3.5 -120, Cody Haddon +3.5 -110	Malcolm Wellmaker -3.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5 +120, Under 2.5 -154	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Malcolm Wellmaker -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 19%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Malcolm Wellmaker to win by decision

Predicted Score: Wellmaker wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Viacheslav Borshchev vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 11:05 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York

Game Overview

The lightweight clash between Viacheslav Borshchev and Matheus Camilo at UFC 322 features Camilo as a slight favorite (-162 moneyline) over Borshchev (+136). Camilo enters motivated after a disappointing recent performance where he appeared to underperform, yet he brings solid submission skills against Borshchev who has shown vulnerabilities on the ground. The fight is expected to be competitive with Camilo's grappling edge and youth likely tipping the balance.

Key Factors to Consider

• Camilo holds a 9-3 record with a submission skillset highlighted by a Kamora win and a strong grappling defense. Borshchev is 8-6-1 overall with a UFC record of 3-5-1, showing inconsistency and struggles to close fights in the UFC.
• No previous H2H meetings between the fighters.
• No reported injuries to either fighter ahead of the bout.
• Late addition to UFC 322 prelims, Camilo replacing a withdrawn opponent recently, indicating good conditioning and readiness despite short notice.
• Camilo appears motivated to rebound strongly after a disappointing last fight where he seemed to give up early, while Borshchev has had mixed UFC success, likely under pressure to prove himself.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Camilo -162, Borshchev +136	Camilo	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Camilo -3.5 -105, Borshchev +3.5 -125	Camilo -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 +130, Under 2.5 -166	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Matheus Camilo 5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Matheus Camilo to win by submission

Predicted Score: Camilo wins via 2nd round submission

Match Analysis: Baysangur Susurkaev vs Eric McConico – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY

Game Overview

Undefeated rising prospect Baisangur Susurkaev (10-0) faces veteran Eric McConico (10-3-1) in a middleweight bout. Susurkaev is heavily favored, known for his high striking volume and strong wrestling-based grappling, coming off a submission win in UFC 319. McConico is a southpaw with solid cardio and seven stoppage wins but slower striking pace and less accuracy.

Key Factors to Consider

• Susurkaev maintains an unblemished 10-0 record with 9 finishes and significantly higher striking volume (4.56/min) and accuracy (58%) compared to McConico’s 1.51/min and 36%. Susurkaev averages nearly 3 takedowns per 3 rounds with 85% takedown defense, dominating the wrestling facet.
• No previous matchup exists between Susurkaev and McConico.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight held at Madison Square Garden, a neutral venue with no known environmental advantage. Susurkaev benefits from a full training camp; McConico is experienced but older at 35.
• Susurkaev, at 24 and undefeated, is highly motivated to make a statement in his second UFC fight. McConico, after a recent split decision win, looks to establish himself further but faces a younger, hungrier opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -1050, away: 675	Baisangur Susurkaev	★★★★☆ 88%
Spread	home: -575 (Baysangur -7.5), away: 350 (McConico +7.5)	Baisangur Susurkaev -7.5	★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under	over: 195 (1.5 rounds), under: -260 (1.5 rounds)	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 78%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Baysangur Susurkaev 590%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Baysangur Susurkaev at 590% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 87.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Baisangur Susurkaev to win decisively, likely by submission or stoppage within early rounds reflecting superior striking and wrestling.

Predicted Score: Susurkaev wins by submission or TKO in Round 1

Match Analysis: Gerald Meerschaert vs Kyle Daukaus – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC 322, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

This middleweight bout features Gerald Meerschaert, a seasoned veteran known for his submission skills, against Kyle Daukaus, a younger and highly efficient southpaw grappler with high takedown and submission averages.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kyle Daukaus holds a 16-4-0 record with recent wins and better striking accuracy (53% vs. Meerschaert's 45%). Meerschaert has a larger total record (37-20-0) but appears less competitive in recent outings, including a loss signifying decline.
• They have no direct previous matchups.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• Fight will take place on UFC 322 prelims. The younger fighter Daukaus may have better conditioning and recovery. No notable external disruptions.
• Kyle Daukaus is entering prime years at age 32 and looks motivated to ascend rankings. Meerschaert at 37 may be motivated but shows signs of career decline.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	gerald_meerschaert: 330, kyle_daukaus: -425	Kyle Daukaus	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	gerald_meerschaert_+7.5: 115, kyle_daukaus_-7.5: -155	Kyle Daukaus -7.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	over_1.5: -175, under_1.5: 135	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Kyle Daukaus -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 69%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 69% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 51.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kyle Daukaus to win by submission with a fight under 1.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Kyle Daukaus wins via submission at 1:30 of round 2

Match Analysis: Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night event

Game Overview

Beneil Dariush (+158) faces Benoit Saint-Denis (-183) in a lightweight (155 lbs) matchup. Saint-Denis is favored as the stronger striker with recent momentum, while Dariush returns from a layoff but possesses superior grappling and submission skills. This is a competitive clash between contrasting fighting styles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Dariush recently defeated Renato Moicano via unanimous decision at UFC 317 (Jun 2024), showcasing his ability to control fights over five rounds. Saint-Denis appears to be the more active competitor with recent fight activity and striking prowess. Dariush's extended layoff between fights raises questions about ring rust and timing.
• No previous head-to-head record exists between these fighters. This is a fresh matchup with no direct historical data to reference.
• No reported injuries for either fighter at this time. Both appear healthy and cleared to compete.
• The three-round format (typical for non-championship UFC bouts) favors aggressive, high-output strikers. Saint-Denis' striking advantages become more pronounced in shorter fights. Dariush's grappling and submission game may not have sufficient rounds to fully implement his strategy.
• Both fighters are competing at elite lightweight level with career trajectory implications. Saint-Denis carries favoritism and momentum. Dariush faces pressure to prove his recent layoff hasn't diminished his competitive edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dariush +158 / Saint-Denis -183	Saint-Denis Win	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Dariush +3.5 (105) / Saint-Denis -3.5 (-135)	Saint-Denis -3.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds (-165) / Under 1.5 rounds (125)	Over 1.5 Rounds	★★★★☆ 71%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Draw -100%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Benoit Saint-Denis wins by decision or striking-based finish. The shorter three-round format, combined with Saint-Denis' striking advantages and recent activity, outweighs Dariush's superior grappling credentials.

Predicted Score: Saint-Denis 29-28 via Unanimous Decision or Saint-Denis TKO Round 2