Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-20
- Time: 6:21 PM UTC
- Location: Chicago, Wrigley Field
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the final game of the series after two highly competitive games. The Cubs currently lead the series and are atop the NL Central with a 14-9 record, while the Diamondbacks hold a 12-9 record, sitting fourth in the NL West. The Cubs have demonstrated strong offensive power, leading MLB with 143 runs scored through 23 games. Arizona is looking to avoid being swept and has shown resilience despite recent losses, including a hard-fought 13-11 victory in the previous game and a 6-2 loss where they struggled against Cubs’ pitching and bullpen depth.
Key Factors to Consider
- Chicago Cubs exhibit solid offensive firepower highlighted by consistent power hitters like Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch, who recently hit back-to-back home runs. Their bullpen has been reliable, notably shutting down the Diamondbacks with 14 straight retired hitters in the last game. The Diamondbacks, led by Corbin Carroll's hot streak and Merrill Kelly's pitching efforts, have struggled recently but remain competitive, with Kelly aiming for a third straight quality start against the Cubs.
- In the recent encounters, the Cubs won the previous game convincingly 6-2 after a wild offensive game prior. The Cubs’ pitching kept Arizona to just four hits in the last outing, while their offense capitalized on Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen’s mistakes, hitting multiple home runs. The Diamondbacks have been competitive but are trailing the Cubs in this series both in performance and momentum.
- No major injuries reported for either team before this matchup. Both teams are expected to field near-full-strength rosters with their top starters Merrill Kelly (ARI) and Jameson Taillon (CHC) pitching.
- The game is played at Wrigley Field, giving the Cubs the home-field advantage. Weather conditions are expected to be typical for late April in Chicago with no extreme conditions reported that could affect gameplay. The Cubs’ recent strong offensive trends and bullpen reliability are boosted by the supportive home crowd.
- The Cubs are motivated to sweep the series and maintain their lead in the NL Central. The Diamondbacks aim to avoid the sweep and gain momentum as they also pursue playoff positioning in the NL West. Both teams have strong incentives but the Cubs have the psychological and statistical edge going into this final game.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona Diamondbacks: +106, Chicago Cubs: -124 | Chicago Cubs | ★★★☆☆ 67% |
| Spread | Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 at -210, Chicago Cubs: -1.5 at +172 | Chicago Cubs -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 7: -120, Under 7: -102 | Over 7 runs | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago Cubs 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 7 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Chicago Cubs at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Chicago Cubs are favored to win this game given their recent dominance both offensively and in bullpen performance, combined with home-field advantage and the pitching matchup favoring Cubs’ Jameson Taillon who has been consistent lately.
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 5 – Arizona Diamondbacks 3
