The Parramatta Eels host the Canberra Raiders in an exciting NRL matchup at TIO Stadium in Darwin. Both teams look to make a statement in the league, with the Raiders favored slightly by bookmakers.
Key Factors to Consider
Canberra Raiders have shown strength in recent performances, which contributes to their favoritism. Parramatta Eels are looking to bounce back from previous losses.
Historically, the head-to-head statistics slightly favor the Canberra Raiders.
Injury reports have not significantly impacted the expected starting lineups for either team.
Playing in Darwin could provide a neutral ground, but the Raiders' form might give them a psychological edge.
Both teams are highly motivated to secure a win and improve their standings.
Match Analysis: Parramatta Eels vs Canberra Raiders – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-04-12 Time: 9:35 AM UTC Location: TIO Stadium, Darwin Game Overview The Parramatta Eels host the Canberra Raiders in an exciting NRL matchup at TIO Stadium in Darwin. Both teams look to make a statement in the league, with the Raiders favored slightly […]
The Gold Coast Titans, positioned last on the NRL ladder with only four wins this season, face the North Queensland Cowboys who sit 12th. Both teams come into Round 17 struggling with form and recent heavy losses – the Titans lost 36-20 to the Eels while the Cowboys suffered a 42-8 defeat to the Roosters. The Titans will be looking to recover from inconsistency, while the Cowboys must respond after multiple recent heavy defeats. This Queensland derby is crucial for both sides aiming to arrest their downward trajectories.
Key Factors to Consider
The Titans have demonstrated fluctuating performances this season, with moments of promise overshadowed by poor results such as the recent loss to the Eels where they also lost Jayden Campbell mid-match due to a head knock. The Cowboys have been struggling defensively, conceding over 30 points in three consecutive matches, including two losses with over 40 points conceded. Both teams face form uncertainties but the Cowboys have a slightly better recent run in terms of standings.
Historically, these Queensland rivals have had competitive encounters; however, current season form heavily favors the Cowboys who are higher on the ladder and arguably more stable despite their recent defensive lapses. The Titans have underperformed against top and mid-table teams this season and are seeking to capitalize on home advantage.
Key injury impacting the Titans is Jayden Campbell, ruled out mid-game last week with a Category 1 head knock. This forced the inclusion of Tom Weaver into the halves. The Cowboys do not have any notable injury news mentioned but are returning Origin players Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Mo Fotuaika to the Titans bench, which may boost Titans' physicality and morale.
The match is at the Titans’ home ground, Cbus Super Stadium, potentially providing a home crowd advantage. Both teams are under pressure due to recent heavy defeats which may affect confidence and motivation. Weather conditions or other external factors have not been specified.
Both teams are motivated to reverse poor runs: the Titans to lift themselves off last place and avoid further slide, and the Cowboys to halt defensive collapses and regain competitiveness. The Cowboys coach has publicly demanded improved effort and execution, which suggests strong motivation to respond positively.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Gold Coast Titans: 128, North Queensland Cowboys: -143, Draw: 1900
North Queensland Cowboys
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Gold Coast Titans: -4.5 -130, North Queensland Cowboys: +4.5 100
North Queensland Cowboys +4.5
★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under
Over 51.5: -115, Under 51.5: -115
Over 51.5 points
★★★★☆ 70%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
North Queensland Cowboys -13%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 51.5 22%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 51.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite the Titans' home advantage, the North Queensland Cowboys are predicted to win due to their stronger ladder position, recent form signals, and the Titans’ key injury and inconsistency issues. The Cowboys' defensive struggles may make it a high-scoring game, but their overall quality should prevail.
The upcoming NRL match between Melbourne Storm and Cronulla Sutherland Sharks is a high-stakes fixture at AAMI Park, with Melbourne as the home team. Historically, Melbourne Storm have dominated this matchup, holding a significant advantage in wins and points scored, especially at home venues like AAMI Park. Cronulla Sharks have been competitive but have fewer victories on Melbourne soil. The match promises intense competition with both teams aiming to assert dominance in the league standings.
Key Factors to Consider
Melbourne Storm have a strong home record, winning 19 of 26 matches against Cronulla on home grounds and holding a robust overall head-to-head lead (30 wins to Cronulla's 17). Recent form favors Melbourne with commanding performances at AAMI Park, outscoring Cronulla significantly (467 points to 193) in past home games. Cronulla show resilience and have managed crucial wins but typically struggle away from their home stadium.
Overall, Melbourne Storm leads the rivalry with 30 wins from 48 matches since 1998, showcasing dominance especially in home fixtures. Cronulla have 17 wins overall, with a better showing at their home venue but less success when away, particularly at AAMI Park. The Storm have longer winning streaks and higher point tallies in recent history, reinforcing Melbourne as favorites.
No specific injury updates are provided from the current data, but the fitness of key players for both sides should be monitored closer to match day for more accurate assessment.
Playing at AAMI Park gives Melbourne Storm a significant home advantage including crowd support and familiarity with the venue. Weather conditions and pitch state are not indicated but should be considered as they can affect game tempo and scoring.
Melbourne Storm, aiming to maintain their home dominance and climb the league table, likely have strong motivation. Cronulla Sharks, seeking to upset the home favorites and improve their away record, will be highly motivated as well. Historical rivalry adds extra competitive edge to the contest.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Melbourne Storm -0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 46.5 16%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 46.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Melbourne Storm are favored to win by a clear margin given their dominant home record and historical superiority over Cronulla Sutherland Sharks. Expect a competitive, physical game but with Melbourne controlling the match tempo and scoreboard.
The Dolphins will face the South Sydney Rabbitohs in a Round 17 NRL match at Suncorp Stadium. Both teams are coming off consecutive losses, with the Dolphins sitting 9th on the ladder seeking to rebound and push into the finals, while the Rabbitohs, at 16th, aim to halt a poor run of form. This match carries added intrigue as it features Wayne Bennett coaching the Rabbitohs against his former team, the Dolphins, now led by his protege Kristian Woolf. Weather disruptions earlier in the season led to a venue switch and schedule reshuffle for these clubs. The game is the second of a double-header day at the venue, with fans advised to arrive early due to crowding and security measures.
Key Factors to Consider
The Dolphins have had a mixed season but remain just outside the top eight, battling to keep finals hopes alive. They recently lost to Newcastle Knights, reflecting some inconsistency. The Rabbitohs have struggled more significantly, with just 17 wins in their last 52 matches and a recent golden point loss to Melbourne showing some promise but ongoing challenges. The Dolphins have adapted well under Kristian Woolf, showing resilience despite injuries, while the Rabbitohs are still rebuilding under Bennett.
The two teams met in Round 1, with the Rabbitohs narrowly edging the Dolphins 16-14 in a hard-fought encounter at CommBank Stadium. Historically, the Rabbitohs have had the upper hand, but the Dolphins have been competitive since their introduction to the NRL. The current season’s first match was tightly contested, suggesting another close game is likely.
The Dolphins are missing Jack Bostock (ACL injury, season-ending), replaced by Junior Tupou on the wing. The Rabbitohs have been affected by injuries throughout the season but no new significant injury reports ahead of this match have been noted. Both teams are dealing with squad depth challenges but have named strong sides.
The match is now held at Suncorp Stadium due to Cyclone Alfred-related rescheduling. The venue is a home ground for the Dolphins, giving them a slight advantage. Two matches on the same day may affect crowd energy and player warmups, but both teams have had similar experience with these conditions. Weather appears stable for the match day.
The Dolphins are highly motivated to regain momentum and secure a vital win to bolster their finals chances. Facing their former coach adds an emotional edge. The Rabbitohs, despite a poor season so far, are driven to improve and gain confidence by upsetting a higher-ranked adversary, with key players like Alex Johnston aiming to continue personal milestones.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Dolphins: -162, South Sydney Rabbitohs: 140, Draw: 2100
Dolphins win
★★★★☆ 70%
Spread
Dolphins -3.5: -115, South Sydney Rabbitohs +3.5: -115
Dolphins to cover -3.5 points
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 49.5: -115, Under 49.5: -115
Under 49.5 points total
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Dolphins -1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 49.5 3%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Dolphins are favored to win due to home advantage, stronger recent form, and motivation to rebound, but the Rabbitohs will keep it competitive. Expect a closely contested match with the Dolphins prevailing by a narrow margin.
This NRL Round 17 match features St George Illawarra Dragons hosting Parramatta Eels at WIN Stadium. Both teams have demonstrated competitive form this season, with the Dragons favored to win at home. The game is expected to be closely contested with impactful plays from both sides, making it an exciting fixture for fans and bettors.
Key Factors to Consider
The Dragons have shown solid home form and consistent performances in recent rounds, while the Eels have been resilient on the road but marginally less consistent overall. St George Illawarra's defense and structured attack have been key strengths, whereas Parramatta's ability to capitalize on turnovers has improved lately.
Recent head-to-head meetings have been tight, with some wins shared between both teams. The last five matches show a near even split, including a close 23-22 win for Parramatta earlier in the season. This historical parity suggests the match could be decided by small margins.
No major injuries have been publicly disclosed affecting key starters for either team at this time, suggesting both sides can field near-full strength lineups.
The match being played at WIN Stadium gives the Dragons a home ground advantage with familiar conditions and fan support. Weather conditions are expected to be typical for Wollongong in late June, without adverse impacts.
St George Illawarra is motivated to consolidate their position in the mid-table standings and maintain winning momentum at home. Parramatta Eels aim to climb higher on the ladder and will be motivated by the chance to upset an in-form home team.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Parramatta Eels: 131, St George Illawarra Dragons: -150, Draw: 2000
St George Illawarra Dragons
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Parramatta Eels: 3.5 -115, St George Illawarra Dragons: -3.5 -115
St George Illawarra Dragons -3.5
★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under
Over: 47.5 -115, Under: 47.5 -115
Under 47.5
★★★☆☆ 55%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
St George Illawarra Dragons -0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 47.5 3%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 47.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the home advantage and slightly better recent consistency, the prediction favors St George Illawarra Dragons to win a close match. Expect a tight contest with defense playing a major role.
Predicted Score: St George Illawarra Dragons 24 – Parramatta Eels 20
The upcoming NRL match between Brisbane Broncos and New Zealand Warriors is set at Suncorp Stadium with the Broncos looking to extend their winning streak at home, having scored 78 points in back-to-back wins. The Warriors, ranked 4th, are slightly ahead in the table compared to the Broncos in 5th. Both teams have recent success at this venue, with the Warriors having claimed three of their last four games at Suncorp but not defeating the Broncos there since 2018. Key players such as Reece Walsh and Payne Haas are influential for the Broncos, while the Warriors welcome back Kurt Capewell following injury. The match is anticipated to be highly competitive, featuring solid performances and tactical adjustments from both sides.
Key Factors to Consider
The Broncos have strong momentum, scoring 78 points over their last two home games and successfully overcoming a 16-point deficit against the Sharks recently. Reece Walsh’s return from injury has significantly boosted their attack, and Payne Haas continues to lead their forward pack effectively. The Warriors have won three of their last four games at Suncorp, showing capacity to challenge at this ground, although they have not beaten the Broncos there since 2018. Lineup changes favor the Warriors with Queensland State of Origin star Kurt Capewell returning, and key players like Rocco Berry and Edward Kosi coming back from injury, potentially strengthening their second-row and wings.
Historically, the Warriors have struggled to defeat the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium, failing to win there since 2018. However, they have won three of their past four encounters at this venue in recent times, indicating a more competitive edge than in past years. Their last season meetings demonstrated balanced try counts, with Warriors scoring four tries and Broncos three in one match during Round 7 2025.
The Warriors are missing Dallin Watene-Zelezniak due to an ankle injury sidelining him for four to six weeks, but have regained Moala Graham-Taufa and welcomed back Kurt Capewell. The Broncos have maintained a consistent lineup with no major changes reported ahead of the match, signaling squad stability. Both teams have deep reserves available on the interchange bench to manage any injuries during the match.
The match day features a unique schedule with a double-header at Suncorp Stadium, which may influence atmosphere and pitch conditions slightly. Weather and travel fatigue do not appear to be major concerns as both teams are accustomed to playing at this venue. Referee Adam Gee, experienced in high-stakes games, will officiate, potentially ensuring a well-controlled match environment.
The Broncos are motivated to secure their third consecutive home victory and maintain momentum in the competition. The Warriors are driven to rebound strongly from a recent unexpected loss to the Panthers and will look to leverage their recent good form at Suncorp Stadium. Both teams are placed closely in the standings (4th vs 5th), adding competitive tension for valuable table points.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos: -186, New Zealand Warriors: 158, Draw: 2100
Brisbane Broncos
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Brisbane Broncos -5.5: -125, New Zealand Warriors +5.5: -105
Brisbane Broncos -5.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 48.5: -115, Under 48.5: -115
Over 48.5
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos -3%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 48.5 8%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the Broncos’ strong recent home performances and the Warriors’ mixed history against them at Suncorp, the Broncos hold a slight advantage. Expect a closely contested match with the Broncos edging out the Warriors by a narrow margin, leveraging home ground momentum and key player form.
Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 26 – 20 New Zealand Warriors
The Newcastle Knights will host the Canberra Raiders in a pivotal Round 17 NRL match at McDonald Jones Stadium. Both teams are competing in the midst of an intense 2025 NRL season, with the Knights looking to capitalize on home advantage and community support during their Beanie for Brain Cancer Round. The Raiders come into the game with the motivation of milestone player Corey Horsburgh, who will play his 100th match for the club.
Key Factors to Consider
The Newcastle Knights have demonstrated solid performances at home this season, leveraging strong defensive structures and effective attacking plays. The Canberra Raiders have been competitive but less consistent away from home. Recent rest for key players like Tyson Young suggests strategic player management by the Knights, while the Raiders are motivated by Horsburgh's milestone.
Historically, encounters between Newcastle and Canberra have been closely contested. Recent form slightly favors the Knights at home, but the Raiders have shown resilience and capacity to pull off upsets. The head-to-head rivalry adds intensity to this clash.
The Knights have Saifiti confirmed as fit and ready to play, while Tyson Young has been rested to keep him fresh. No significant injuries have been reported for the Raiders ahead of the match, indicating both teams will likely field close to full-strength squads.
The game is part of the Beanie for Brain Cancer Round at McDonald Jones Stadium, contributing added emotional motivation for the Knights and strong local support. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be favorable for a high-tempo game.
Corey Horsburgh's 100th game for the Raiders provides a strong personal and team incentive. For the Knights, the desire to maintain home dominance and engage the passionate local fanbase during a special charity round boosts their motivation to win.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Canberra Raiders 83%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 44.5 3%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Canberra Raiders at 83% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the home advantage, recent team management, and emotional stakes, the Newcastle Knights are favored to win this encounter. The Raiders remain a threat but are underdogs on the road.
The Manly Warringah Sea Eagles host the Wests Tigers in Round 17 of the 2025 NRL season at 4 Pines Park. The Sea Eagles are positioned 10th on the ladder while the Tigers sit 14th. Manly have made some key lineup changes with Lehi Hopoate returning at fullback, causing shifts in the backline, and some injury-enforced replacements in the forwards. The Tigers are coming off a narrow 16-12 loss to the Raiders and will be motivated to improve their standing. The match is expected to be competitive but the Sea Eagles enter as favorites given their stronger recent form and squad strength.
Key Factors to Consider
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles have shown better recent form and squad depth, especially with key players like Tom Trbojevic shifting to the centres and Reuben Garrick on the wing. Wests Tigers have struggled this season and recently lost narrowly to the Raiders, though they remain competitive.
Historically, the Sea Eagles have the upper hand over the Tigers, with recent head-to-head simulations giving Manly a 75% chance to win this match out of 10,000 simulations.
Lehi Hopoate returns for Manly from HIA protocol, while Lachlan Croker is out for Wests Tigers due to HIA protocol. Other minor injury replacements include Corey Waddell for Manly and Jake Simpkin comes off the bench for Wests Tigers.
The game is played at Manly's home ground 4 Pines Park, which provides a home advantage. Weather or other external factors were not highlighted in source data, so presumably neutral.
Wests Tigers are motivated to improve after a close loss last round, whereas Manly seeks to consolidate their top 10 position and build momentum in the second half of the season.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 3%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 47.5 3%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles are predicted to win by a comfortable margin, leveraging their home advantage, stronger squad, and better recent form. Expect a moderately high scoring game with Manly covering the -7.5 spread and total points going over 47.5.
The upcoming NRL match between Penrith Panthers and Canterbury Bulldogs features two teams with contrasting recent performances. The Bulldogs currently lead the league with an 85% win rate (11 wins out of 13 games) and are in strong form with 8 wins in their last 10 games. The Panthers sit in 8th place with a 43% win rate and a mixed recent record. This match is significant for both sides as the Bulldogs aim to consolidate their top position while the Panthers seek to climb up the standings.
Key Factors to Consider
Canterbury Bulldogs have been the dominant side this season with 11 wins and only 2 losses, showing consistency and resilience. Penrith Panthers have struggled for consistency with 6 wins and 7 losses, although they have shown improvement with 3 wins in their last 5 games.
Historically, Penrith Panthers have a slight edge with 60 wins compared to Canterbury Bulldogs' 49 in 112 overall encounters. In the more recent decade, Panthers won 11 out of 15 matches against Bulldogs, indicating some historical dominance, but current season form favors the Bulldogs.
No specific injury updates are provided in the current data; presumed that both teams approach full strength or with minimal impactful absences.
The match is played at Penrith's home ground, providing a home advantage for the Panthers. Weather or other environmental factors are not indicated in the data.
Canterbury Bulldogs have high motivation to maintain their top position and extend their winning streak, whereas Penrith Panthers are motivated to improve their standings and capitalize on home advantage.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Canterbury Bulldogs -7%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 42.5 12%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 42.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the strong current form and league standing of Canterbury Bulldogs combined with the spread and moneyline odds favoring the Bulldogs, the prediction leans towards a Bulldogs win, though the Panthers' home advantage and historical competitiveness make it a contest worth watching.
The Round 16 NRL match features the Parramatta Eels hosting the Gold Coast Titans. Both teams are battling to improve their standings, with the Eels at home aiming to leverage their local advantage against the Titans, who have demonstrated competitive form recently. The match is expected to be tightly contested, with both sides showing resilience in their previous rounds.
Key Factors to Consider
Parramatta Eels have been struggling to find consistent form, coming off a Round 14 match against Canterbury and looking to build momentum. The Gold Coast Titans, after facing Manly in Round 15, have shown slightly better momentum and cohesion under coach Des Hasler. Both teams have had mixed results, but the Titans' recent performances give them a slight edge in form.
Historically, encounters between the Eels and Titans have been competitive, with Parramatta often favored at home but Gold Coast managing to upset at times. The head-to-head record suggests a balanced rivalry, but Parramatta generally performs better on home ground at CommBank Stadium.
Current detailed injury lists were not explicitly available, but both teams typically carry some injuries mid-season. Any key player absences could swing the game sharply; however, no major injury concerns have been reported for this match indicating near-full-strength squads.
Weather conditions are expected to be typical for Sydney in June, with no adverse weather impacting play. Playing at home gives Parramatta a familiar environment and fan support, while travel might slightly affect Gold Coast but not significantly given the proximity.
Both teams are motivated to climb the NRL ladder; Parramatta seeks to capitalize on home advantage to arrest a mid-season slump, while Gold Coast looks to continue their positive momentum and prove their competitiveness away from home.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Gold Coast Titans -11%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 48.5 4%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Gold Coast Titans are favored to win narrowly due to better recent form and betting market confidence, despite Parramatta's home advantage. Expect a close match with defensive solidity from both sides, potentially low scoring near the total line.
