Niko Ceraglia faces Mirco Negrisoli in a Featherweight bout at Cage Warriors 183. Ceraglia is favored with odds of -1100, while Negrisoli is at 600.
Key Factors to Consider
Niko Ceraglia is favored due to his strong odds, suggesting a perceived advantage in performance. However, specific performance metrics are not available.
There is no recorded head-to-head data between Niko Ceraglia and Mirco Negrisoli.
No injury reports are available for either fighter.
The event takes place in Rome, which might favor Italian fighters, but specific external factors are not detailed.
Both fighters are motivated to win, but specific motivational factors are not detailed.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Niko Ceraglia: -1100, Mirco Negrisoli: 600
Niko Ceraglia
★★★★☆ 85%
Predicted Outcome
Niko Ceraglia is predicted to win based on the odds.
Predicted Score: Niko Ceraglia wins by decision or submission.
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Niko Ceraglia vs. Mirco Negrisoli Prediction
Match Analysis: Niko Ceraglia vs Mirco Negrisoli – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-03-08 Time: 4:00 PM UTC Location: PalaPellicone, Rome, Italy Game Overview Niko Ceraglia faces Mirco Negrisoli in a Featherweight bout at Cage Warriors 183. Ceraglia is favored with odds of -1100, while Negrisoli is at 600. Key Factors to Consider Niko Ceraglia is […]
Kyle Estrada faces off against Ernesto Ibarra in LFA 220. Estrada is the less favored fighter in this matchup, with odds of +150 against Ibarra's -200.
Key Factors to Consider
Ernesto Ibarra has a strong recent record with 10 wins and only 1 loss. Kyle Estrada also has a solid record with 14 wins but has more losses with 8.
There is no available head-to-head data for these fighters.
No reported injuries for either fighter.
The fight is in Phoenix, Arizona, which may not provide a significant home advantage for Estrada.
Both fighters are motivated to win, but Ibarra's recent success might give him an edge in confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Ernesto Ibarra: -200, Kyle Estrada: 150
Ernesto Ibarra
★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under
Over 2.5: -165, Under 2.5: 125
Over 2.5
★★★★☆ 78%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Ernesto Ibarra 8%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2.5 25%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ernesto Ibarra is favored to win based on his recent form and performance statistics.
Featherweight bout at LFA 220 featuring Christian Natividad fighting at home against visiting Jostin Quilca, both with recent winning streaks but differing circumstances affecting form and judging.
Key Factors to Consider
Christian Natividad enters on a winning streak with consistent activity, while Jostin Quilca has also a short winning streak but has had a break between fights causing a possible loss of fitness.
No direct recent head-to-head data available; both fighters have similar finishing percentages across KO, submission, and decisions with Natividad slightly favoring decisions and Quilca balanced across finish types.
No explicit injuries reported for either fighter; fitness advantage presumed towards Natividad due to more recent fight activity.
Natividad benefits from home country advantage and potential favorable judging; Quilca may suffer from judging bias and challenges related to being the guest fighter.
Natividad motivated by defending home turf though may feel moral pressure; Quilca motivated to extend his winning streak despite adversity and away fight conditions.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: -1200, away: +650
Christian Natividad
★★★★☆ 78%
Spread
home: -1.5 (-130), away: +1.5 (+110)
Christian Natividad -1.5
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
over_1.5_rounds: -110, under_1.5_rounds: -110
Over 1.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Christian Natividad -16%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Christian Natividad at -16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Christian Natividad to win by decision.
Predicted Score: Christian Natividad wins by decision after more than 1.5 rounds
Kevin Natividad and Ryan Kuse are set to face off in a highly anticipated MMA matchup. With Kuse favored at -135, Natividad is listed as the underdog at +105.
Key Factors to Consider
Recent form data is not specified, but traditional MMA metrics such as past performance and win-loss records are often crucial. Kuse has shown strong odds in previous fights, indicating a consistent performance.
No head-to-head data is available, making this a fresh matchup with no prior history.
No injury reports are mentioned, which could be a significant factor in MMA.
External factors like motivation and venue could influence the fight, but specific details are not provided.
Motivation to win is typically high in MMA bouts, but specific factors are not detailed.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Kevin Natividad: +105, Ryan Kuse: -135
Ryan Kuse
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Ryan Kuse -4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Ryan Kuse at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ryan Kuse is predicted to win due to being favored by the bookmakers.
Location: Arizona Financial Theatre, Phoenix, Arizona, United States
Game Overview
Chance Ikei, a strong favorite with significant experience at bantamweight, faces Jordan Burkholder who poses an upset threat with solid grappling skills. The matchup features a blend of Ikei's wrestling and striking against Burkholder's resilience and submission attempts.
Key Factors to Consider
Chance Ikei has demonstrated consistent recent form with a series of wins emphasizing control and striking precision. Jordan Burkholder has shown competitive grit but with more volatility and fewer recent wins at this level.
No direct previous matchups between Chance Ikei and Jordan Burkholder, creating uncertainty but favoring the more experienced Ikei.
No reported injuries for either fighter that would materially impact performance, indicating both are likely at full strength.
Fight taking place at a neutral venue with no evident external influences such as home crowd advantage or travel issues affecting either fighter.
Ikei, as the favored contender, likely highly motivated to maintain status and push towards bigger promotions; Burkholder motivated to spoil the favorite and build career momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Chance Ikei: -375, Jordan Burkholder: +260
Chance Ikei
★★★★☆ 78%
Spread
Chance Ikei -1.5: -165, Jordan Burkholder +1.5: +135
Chance Ikei -1.5
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110
Over 2.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Chance Ikei -8%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Chance Ikei at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Chance Ikei to win by decision
Predicted Score: Chance Ikei wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds
Main event bantamweight (135 lbs) fight in LFA 220 featuring Kasey Tanner vs Michael Cyr, a 5-round matchup with significant betting interest and contrasting career trajectories.
Key Factors to Consider
Kasey Tanner has demonstrated superior recent form with consistent wins against top contenders in the bantamweight division, showing strong striking and takedown defense. Michael Cyr, while skilled, has been less consistent with losses in his recent fights and some gaps in cardio endurance.
No direct head-to-head matchups exist between Tanner and Cyr, making tactical and stylistic analysis crucial.
No reported injuries to either fighter leading into the match, both appear fully prepared and healthy.
Fight takes place in Phoenix, Arizona, with no known travel or acclimatization disadvantages for either fighter. Both have had adequate training camps.
Kasey Tanner is highly motivated to cement himself as the next top bantamweight in LFA, possibly eyeing a UFC contract soon. Michael Cyr is motivated to rebound and reestablish his standing but has more to prove after recent setbacks.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Kasey Tanner: -600, Michael Cyr: 375
Kasey Tanner
★★★★☆ 78%
Spread
Tanner -1.5 rounds: -150, Cyr +1.5 rounds: 130
Tanner -1.5 rounds
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over 3.5 rounds: +110, Under 3.5 rounds: -130
Over 3.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Kasey Tanner -9%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Kasey Tanner at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline win for Kasey Tanner; Spread: Tanner -1.5 rounds; Over 3.5 rounds for total fight duration
Predicted Score: Kasey Tanner wins by decision after 5 rounds
UFC 321 heavyweight title fight between home fighter Tom Aspinall and challenger Ciryl Gane. Both are top-tier heavyweights with distinct styles: Aspinall is a strong grappler with high submission averages, while Gane excels in striking and technical stand-up. Aspinall's recent form shows high takedown accuracy and submission threats, while Gane leverages reach and striking volume.
Key Factors to Consider
Aspinall holds a record of 15-3 with 100% takedown accuracy recently, averaging 3.27 takedowns per fight and 1.63 submissions per 15 minutes, indicating strong ground control. Gane has a record of 13-2, with superior striking volume (8.07 significant strikes landed per minute vs. Gane’s 5.26) and decent takedown defense (75%), but less ground finishing ability.
No direct previous matchups, but stylistically Aspinall’s grappling may neutralize Gane’s striking advantage if clinch and ground transitions succeed.
No publicly reported injuries for either fighter at this time suggesting both are at full fitness.
Fight held in neutral venue (Abu Dhabi) minimizing home crowd impact. Both fighters motivated to win the heavyweight title, implying high intensity.
Aspinall fights for title supremacy with confidence from effective ground game; Gane aims to regain belt with precise striking and reach advantage.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Tom Aspinall: -355, Ciryl Gane: 280
Tom Aspinall
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Tom Aspinall: -310, Ciryl Gane: 215
Tom Aspinall -13.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 1.5 rounds: -120, Under 1.5 rounds: -110
Over 1.5 rounds
★★★★☆ 70%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Tom Aspinall -9%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 1.5 25%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tom Aspinall to win via submission or decision
Predicted Score: Tom Aspinall wins by submission or decision after round 2
The upcoming fight between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern is for the vacant women's strawweight title at UFC 321. Mackenzie Dern is favored due to her prolific submission skills, while Jandiroba excels in takedowns and grappling.
Key Factors to Consider
Mackenzie Dern has a strong submission game with eight finishes, while Virna Jandiroba averages 4.57 takedowns per 15 minutes.
No previous head-to-head matchups have been recorded between these fighters.
No significant injuries have been reported.
The fight being part of UFC 321 with a title at stake adds significant motivation for both fighters.
Both fighters are highly motivated, competing for a title.
This is a bantamweight main card fight featuring the rising Umar Nurmagomedov, a dominant grappler with elite wrestling pedigree, against the surging Mario Bautista, who rides an eight-fight win streak thanks to improved striking and defensive grappling. Nurmagomedov is a heavy favorite due to pedigree, recent form, and perceived superior skill set.
Key Factors to Consider
Nurmagomedov is undefeated in the UFC and widely regarded as a future champion. Bautista is in the best form of his career, recently defeating top-tier competition by decision. However, Nurmagomedov's pace, grappling, and control have overwhelmed all UFC opponents so far.
These fighters have never met; Nurmagomedov has never lost. Bautista's recent wins have come against dangerous strikers and grapplers, but no one with Nurmagomedov's wrestling pedigree.
No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of this bout.
Nurmagomedov fights out of Dagestan, known for elite wrestling and tight-knit training camps. The event is in Abu Dhabi, a neutral venue. Expectations and media pressure are high on Nurmagomedov.
Nurmagomedov seeks to cement himself as a title contender. Bautista is motivated to break into the elite and prove he can hang at the top of the division.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Umar Nurmagomedov -625, Mario Bautista +455
Umar Nurmagomedov
★★★★☆ 85%
Spread
Umar Nurmagomedov -5.5 (-135), Mario Bautista +5.5 (100)
Umar Nurmagomedov -5.5
★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under
Over 2.5 (-260), Under 2.5 (195)
Over 2.5
★★★★★ 90%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Umar Nurmagomedov -1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2.5 25%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 64% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nurmagomedov wins a dominant, methodical decision rooted in wrestling control, pace, and cage craft. Bautista’s defensive grappling is tested, but he struggles to keep it standing or mount consistent offense.
Predicted Score: Umar Nurmagomedov def. Mario Bautista by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Heavyweight UFC bout featuring Alexander Volkov, a seasoned striker with notable KO power, against Jailton Almeida, a grappling specialist progressing rapidly in MMA with strong submission skills and recent momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
Volkov has had mixed recent performances, showing durability and heavy hands but sometimes vulnerable to wrestlers. Almeida has exhibited growth with undefeated or near-undefeated momentum, strong grappling control, and steady improvement in striking defense.
No prior head-to-head bouts between Volkov and Almeida; styles suggest Almeida's grappling could neutralize Volkov's striking advantage.
No major injuries reported for either fighter ahead of the bout, both expected to be at full strength.
Fight scheduled as a main card bout, high stakes for Almeida to prove himself in heavyweight division; Volkov motivated to defend reputation and maintain ranking.
Almeida highly motivated to capitalize on recent rise; Volkov motivated to avoid career setbacks against a surging contender.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Alexander Volkov: +164, Jailton Almeida: -198
Jailton Almeida
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Alexander Volkov +7.5: +100, Jailton Almeida -7.5: -135
Jailton Almeida -7.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 1.5 rounds: -130, Under 1.5 rounds: +100
Over 1.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 68%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Jailton Almeida -11%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 1.5 6%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jailton Almeida wins via submission within 3 rounds
Predicted Score: Jailton Almeida wins by submission at round 2:30
