Match Analysis: Tottenham Hotspur vs Burnley – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
Game Overview
Tottenham Hotspur starts their Premier League campaign at home against newly promoted Burnley. Tottenham, despite a poor previous league season, are favorites due to squad quality and home advantage. Burnley, well-organized defensively, aim to challenge a struggling Tottenham attack.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tottenham averaged 1.7 goals per game last season but were weak defensively, finishing 16th defensively. Burnley had a strong defensive record in the Championship but face a step up in quality in the Premier League.
- Recent head-to-head data favors Tottenham with consistent victories; Burnley struggles to score against them historically.
- Tottenham misses key creative players Maddison and Kulusevski, which could limit their attacking output. Burnley lacks major injuries affecting defensive solidity.
- Tottenham benefits from home advantage at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and new signings aiming to improve results. Burnley also made key transfers but are expected to focus on defense.
- Tottenham is motivated to rebound from a poor league campaign and capitalize on Champions League qualification. Burnley seeks to prove their Premier League survival credentials and build from promotion momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Tottenham -270, Burnley +820, Draw +410 | Tottenham | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Tottenham -1.25 -123, Burnley +1.25 107 | Tottenham -1.25 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.75 -113, Under 2.75 -103 | Over 2.75 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Tottenham Hotspur -11% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.75 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tottenham to win on the moneyline, covering the -1.25 goal spread with a total over 2.75 goals.
Predicted Score: Tottenham 3 – Burnley 1