Match Analysis: Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-12
- Time: 11:11 PM UTC
- Location: loanDepot park, Miami, Florida
Game Overview
Detroit Tigers (84-63) visit Miami Marlins (68-79) with Tigers firmly in playoff contention and Marlins out of the postseason hunt. Pitching matchup features elite Tarik Skubal (2.10 ERA) vs struggling Sandy Alcantara (5.67 ERA). Tigers are favorites on moneyline and run line, with total set at 7 runs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tigers display strong form (84-63) with solid 3.90 ERA pitching staff and balanced offense (.251 AVG). Marlins (68-79) inconsistent lately, with a 4.75 ERA pitching and weaker offense (.250 AVG). Tigers lead in recent performance and pitching metrics.
- Limited recent H2H data for 2025; Skubal faces Marlins for second time with excellent prior performance. Alcantara pitching a first career start vs Tigers, having struggled this season. Tigers had recent success vs Marlins pitching and offense matchup favors Detroit.
- No major injury concerns reported for key players on either side; Marlins miss Kyle Stowers (IL), who leads their HR & RBI production. Tigers appear healthier with top pitchers available.
- Game at Marlins home in Miamiβs loanDepot park, typically neutral pitching environment. Weather and travel appear standard with no adverse impact expected.
- Tigers motivated by playoff push needing wins; Marlins have less motivation as a non-contender. This gap favors Detroit's competitive edge and intensity.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers: -210, Miami Marlins: +176 | Detroit Tigers | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Detroit Tigers -1.5 -114, Miami Marlins +1.5 -105 | Detroit Tigers -1.5 | β β β β β 74% |
Over/under | Over 7 -102, Under 7 -120 | Under 7 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers -8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Detroit Tigers moneyline win
Predicted Score: Detroit Tigers 5 - Miami Marlins 3
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