Match Analysis: Michigan Wolverines vs Purdue Boilermakers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Michigan Wolverines Home Stadium
Game Overview
This NCAA football matchup pits the dominant Michigan Wolverines against the underdog Purdue Boilermakers. Michigan has a strong historical and recent performance advantage, with a solid defense and offense balance, while Purdue struggles to maintain consistent scoring against quality opponents.
Key Factors to Consider
- Michigan has won 11 of the last 14 matchups with an average 33 points scored per game and a stout defense holding opponents under 20 points on average. Recent form shows Michigan winning 3 of last 5 with an average margin of +5 points. Purdue has shown weaker offensive output, averaging under 10 points in recent losses and a poor away record.
- Michigan leads the series 11-3 since 2000, with a 100% ATS win rate over Purdue recently, and consistent victories at home. Purdue has only managed 3 wins with a lower average point score and worse defensive stats.
- No significant injuries reported for Michigan, maintaining key starters. Purdue has some minor offensive injuries affecting depth but no major absences of starters.
- Michigan is playing at home with favorable weather conditions and supportive crowd. No notable external disruptions expected.
- Michigan is motivated to maintain top ranking and bowl eligibility; Purdue aims to upset but has less consistent motivation based on fewer recent wins and weaker schedule.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -2200, away: 1100 | Michigan Wolverines | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | home: -106, away: -114 | Michigan Wolverines -21.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | over: -105, under: -115 | Under 49.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 49.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Michigan Wolverines moneyline and -21.5 spread, with the game total going under 49.5 points.
Predicted Score: Michigan Wolverines 31 – Purdue Boilermakers 14