Match Analysis: Getafe vs Atlético Madrid – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe, Spain
Game Overview
Getafe hosts Atlético Madrid in a La Liga clash at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez. Getafe currently sits in the top half of the table, while Atlético Madrid is firmly in the top four, making this a high-stakes encounter. Atlético Madrid is favored to win, but Getafe has shown resilience at home and has a history of competitive matches against top teams.
Key Factors to Consider
- Getafe is ranked 7th-8th in La Liga, with a solid defensive record and a tendency to grind out results. Atlético Madrid is 4th-5th, boasting a strong attacking lineup and consistent form. Atlético has won 7 of their last 12 league games, while Getafe has 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses. Atlético's recent form includes a 5-1 win over Eintracht Frankfurt in Europe, showing their attacking prowess.
- Recent head-to-head matches show Atlético Madrid dominating, with a 5-0 win in the Copa del Rey and a 1-0 league victory in December 2024. However, Getafe managed a 2-1 win in March 2025, indicating they can compete at home. Historically, Atlético Madrid has won 6 of the last 10 meetings, with Getafe winning 2 and 2 draws.
- No major injuries reported for either team. Both squads are expected to field their strongest available lineups. Atlético Madrid's key players like Jan Oblak and Robin Le Normand are fit and in form.
- The match is played at Getafe's home ground, which is known for its tough atmosphere. Weather conditions are expected to be mild, with no significant impact on play. Atlético Madrid's recent European commitments may affect their stamina, but their squad depth should mitigate this.
- Atlético Madrid is pushing for a top-three finish and Champions League qualification, while Getafe aims to secure a European spot. Both teams have strong motivation to win, but Atlético's ambitions are slightly higher given their league position.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlético Madrid: -138, Getafe: 425, Draw: 255 | Atlético Madrid | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Atlético Madrid: -0.75 -102, Getafe: 75 -118 | Atlético Madrid -0.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 2 -115, Under: 2 -105 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlético Madrid 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 27% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atlético Madrid is favored to win, but Getafe's home form and defensive solidity make this a challenging match. Expect a tight game with Atlético Madrid edging it due to their superior attacking quality.
Predicted Score: Getafe 0-1 Atlético Madrid