Match Analysis: Memphis Tigers vs UNLV Rebels – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Game Overview
Memphis Tigers (1-1) host UNLV Rebels (1-2) in a non-conference college basketball matchup. Memphis enters as heavy favorites following a road loss to Ole Miss, while UNLV seeks their second win after a disappointing 1-2 start marked by losses to Tennessee-Martin and Montana at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- UNLV has struggled significantly, managing just one win in three games despite shooting efficiently at 51.1% from the field. They lost as 10-point favorites to Montana at home (102-93), indicating execution and defensive issues. Memphis won their opener but lost on the road to Ole Miss (83-77), suggesting inconsistency but strength at home. Memphis is considered the best team in the AAC this season.
- Memphis defeated UNLV 80-74 in their most recent matchup, demonstrating dominance in direct competition.
- No specific injuries reported for either team in available data.
- UNLV is traveling on the road where they have yet to play this season (0-0 Away). Memphis plays at home where they are 1-0, providing significant home-court advantage. UNLV has failed to cover spreads where they were favored, suggesting a pattern of underperformance against expectations.
- Memphis will be motivated to rebound from their first loss with a convincing home victory. UNLV faces mounting pressure to avoid an 0-3 start against a superior opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis -630 / UNLV +450 | Memphis Tigers ML | β β β β β 86% |
| Spread | Memphis -9.5 (-120) / UNLV +9.5 (-102) | Memphis Tigers -9.5 | β β β β β 74% |
| Over/under | Over 161.5 (-115) / Under 161.5 (-105) | Under 161.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 161.5 21% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 161.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Memphis Tigers will dominate UNLV at home, covering the spread convincingly in a lower-scoring affair than typical UNLV games due to Memphis's defensive discipline.
Predicted Score: Memphis 79, UNLV 65