Match Analysis: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Purdue Boilermakers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 13, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Game Overview
Top-10 early-season matchup between No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers, both entering undefeated at 2-0. This Big Ten vs. SEC clash features two elite programs meeting at Alabama's home court with significant tournament seeding implications.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alabama (2-0) defeated St. John's 103-96 on the road as a 4-point underdog and North Dakota 91-62 at home. The Crimson Tide shoot 48.1% from the field with strong interior dominance (54-40 paint advantage vs. St. John's), though their three-point shooting (30.6%, 244th nationally) and free throw conversion (71.4%, 163rd) remain below-average. Purdue (2-0) averages 84.5 PPG on 47.2% shooting with elite defense allowing just 64 PPG, averaging 5.5 blocks and 4 steals per game. The Boilermakers average 22 assists per game, indicating ball movement and team efficiency.
- Purdue owns a 7-3 all-time series advantage and has won the last two meetings, including an 87-78 home victory on November 15, 2024. This historical edge suggests Purdue's system matches well against Alabama's tempo.
- Purdue may be without Kaufman-Renn for this matchup, a significant loss the coaching staff is likely managing conservatively early in the season. No major injuries reported for Alabama.
- Alabama is 2nd in the nation in pace of play according to KenPom, which should enable their high-scoring tendencies but may expose them defensively. Purdue's strategy to slow the game contradicts this matchup dynamic, creating tactical tension. Home court advantage at Coleman Coliseum favors Alabama.
- Both teams are undefeated with playoff seeding implications. Alabama's road win over a ranked opponent demonstrates competitive mettle, while Purdue's #2 ranking and recent head-to-head success may provide confidence despite travel.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama -185, Purdue +154 | Alabama Crimson Tide | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Alabama -3.5 -115, Purdue +3.5 -105 | Alabama -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 175.5 -105, Under 175.5 -115 | Under 175.5 | ★★★☆☆ 66% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 175.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alabama Crimson Tide victory with moderate spread cover. The home court advantage, superior pace control, and recent tournament-level performance outweigh Purdue's elite defense and historical series advantage. However, Purdue's defensive efficiency and Kaufman-Renn absence limit Alabama's margin.
Predicted Score: Alabama 88, Purdue 82
