Match Analysis: Troy Trojans vs Arkansas State Red Wolves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Alabama
Game Overview
This Sun Belt conference matchup features the Troy Trojans (6-2) hosting the Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-4). Troy is favored by 7.5 points with the total line at 52.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Troy has been strong recently with 5 straight wins including a 35-23 home victory over Louisiana Ragin Cajuns. Arkansas State just won their third consecutive game, beating Georgia Southern 34-24. Troy ranks better both offensively (65th in scoring) and defensively (68th in points allowed) compared to Arkansas State's rankings around 99th in scoring and 96th in points allowed.
- In the last five meetings, Troy has won three times though Arkansas State won the most recent matchup 34-31 on their home turf.
- No significant injuries reported for either team, indicating likely full-strength lineups for both sides.
- Troy has home-field advantage at Veterans Memorial Stadium, where they have had solid recent performances. Weather or other external disruptions are not presently noted.
- Troy is positioned to strengthen their conference standing with a solid record and home crowd support. Arkansas State seeks to maintain momentum from their current winning streak and upset a top contender on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -290, away: +235 | Troy Trojans | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | home: -105, away: -115 | Troy Trojans -7.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Under 52.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 52.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 52.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Troy Trojans to win straight up, cover the -7.5 spread, and under 52.5 total points scored
Predicted Score: Troy Trojans 28 – Arkansas State Red Wolves 17