Match Analysis: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas
Game Overview
Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6) host the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-4) in an SEC matchup. Arkansas is favored by 4.5 points, but has struggled this season with a 5-game losing streak and defensive vulnerabilities. Mississippi State has been solid against the spread and runs a strong rushing offense that exploits Arkansas' weak rush defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arkansas has lost 5 straight games amid coaching changes and ranks near bottom in rush defense and secondary performance. Mississippi State has a balanced offensive attack, ranks 45th in rushing play percentage, and has gone 4-1 ATS recently.
- Recent matchups show competitive games but Mississippi State has covered well in recent encounters. Arkansas has lost last three home games and struggled defensively.
- No specific major injuries reported but interim coaching and overall team consistency challenges affect Arkansas more.
- Playing at home gives Arkansas some edge but recent home performance has been weak. Weather or field conditions not expected to impact significantly.
- Mississippi State motivated to break Arkansas' home win streak and improve conference standing, while Arkansas seeks to end a losing skid and prove stability under interim coach.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks -184, Mississippi State Bulldogs +154 | Arkansas Razorbacks | β β β ββ 60% |
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks -4.5 (-110), Mississippi State Bulldogs +4.5 (-110) | Mississippi State Bulldogs +4.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 65.5 -115, Under 65.5 -105 | Under 65.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 65.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 65.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Mississippi State Bulldogs +4.5 spread as highest EV play due to Arkansas' poor defense and Mississippi State's offense efficiency. Moneyline favored to Arkansas but with low confidence. Take Under 65.5 points total due to defensive struggles but lack of explosive scoring.
Predicted Score: Arkansas Razorbacks 24 – Mississippi State Bulldogs 21