Match Analysis: Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-17
- Time: 10:09 PM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Game Overview
ALCS Game 5 between Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays, series tied 2-2, pivotal match with strong recent offensive performance by Toronto and crucial pitching matchup between Gausman (TOR) and Miller (SEA).
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto Blue Jays have shown strong offensive surge in the last two games scoring 21 combined runs, while Seattleβs offense has declined; Mariners have better home record (51-30) but Blue Jays are on momentum with wins in last two outings at Seattle.
- In their recent ALCS games, Toronto leads with two large margin wins in Seattle (13-4, 8-2), and Mariners only have managed a closer win (3-1) earlier in the series; Blue Jays hitters have historically matched better against Marinersβ Miller than Mariners hitters against Gausman.
- No significant injuries reported to either starting pitchers or key offensive players for this game, rosters appear at full strength.
- Game is at Seattleβs home park where pitching and weather conditions slightly favor Mariners, yet momentum and playoff pressure currently tip balance towards Blue Jays.
- Series tied 2-2, high stakes with winner taking 3-2 lead going home; Toronto comes in with winning momentum and offense needed to carry them, Seattle needs a strong home performance to regain control.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Seattle Mariners: -108, Toronto Blue Jays: -108 | Toronto Blue Jays | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Seattle Mariners +1.5: -205, Toronto Blue Jays -1.5: 168 | Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 7: -110, Under 7: -110 | Over 7 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 7 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 7 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Toronto Blue Jays to win; Spread: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5; Over/Under: Over 7 runs
Predicted Score: Toronto Blue Jays 6 – 3 Seattle Mariners