Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-17
- Time: 11:05 PM UTC
- Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays in a high-stakes late-season MLB matchup. The Rays are struggling with recent form, having lost 6 of their last 7, while the Blue Jays are in better shape and motivated to extend a winning streak.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tampa Bay Rays have been underperforming with only 2 wins in their last 10 home games, averaging 3.2 runs scored and allowing 4.2 runs. Toronto Blue Jays are showing stronger offense, coming off recent wins and a positive momentum at away games.
- Historically, the Rays lead the H2H 90-60 overall but only 51-27 at home. The last matchup was a close 6-5 win for the Blue Jays on September 17, 2025, indicating a competitive rivalry.
- Toronto has no major reported injuries impacting this game, while the Rays struggle with bullpen consistency and offensive depth issues.
- The home venue Tropicana Field has a slight scoring favor for the Rays but their current form weakens this advantage. Weather and other external conditions are standard for late September in Tampa Bay.
- Toronto is motivated to maintain their winning streak and climb standings, while Tampa Bay is eager to rebound from a poor run but may suffer from low morale.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays -125, Tampa Bay Rays +113 | Toronto Blue Jays | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +130, Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 -150 | Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8 -110, Under 8 -110 | Over 8 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toronto Blue Jays to win on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 run spread, and the game to go over 8 total runs.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 6, Rays 3