Match Analysis: Sport Recife vs Botafogo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-20
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Sport Recife Home Stadium
Game Overview
This match features Sport Recife hosting Botafogo in the Brazil Campeonato, a crucial contest with Botafogo currently favored by bookmakers. Both teams have moderate goal averages historically, but Botafogo holds an edge in recent form and head-to-head records.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo has shown stronger recent form at both home and away matches with a slightly better defensive record, conceding fewer goals per game. Sport Recife has won some matches but with lower scoring output and higher goals conceded recently.
- Over 14 meetings, Botafogo leads with 7 wins compared to Sport Recife's 3, with 4 draws. Botafogo also averages 1.4 goals per match historically against Sport Recife's 0.9, indicating superior attacking output in these matchups[1].
- No major injury data found; assume key players are available or no significant absences affecting either side.
- No significant external factors such as weather or travel disruptions reported that would notably affect the match outcome.
- Botafogo is motivated to maintain league standing and capitalize on recent positive momentum, while Sport Recife looks to leverage home advantage to improve their position.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo 120, Sport Recife 250, Draw 220 | Botafogo | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Botafogo -0.25 -112, Sport Recife +25 -108 | Botafogo -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2 -125, Under 2 105 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo 21% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Botafogo moneyline win
Predicted Score: Botafogo 1 – 0 Sport Recife
